Media Buying Briefing: Forrester’s Wave report finds growing homogeneity among the 12 biggest agencies

“I was anticipating more differentiation in the marketplace as a result of of the consolidations and acquisitions that took place,” said Pattisall, referring to things like Omnicom’s acquisition of IPG and Publicis’ various tech and segment purchases, as well as PE-backed acquisitions like Wpromote’s purchase of Giant Spoon. “I was anticipating that we would see more separation, if you will. Once you look outside of scale and size, then the differences are much more subtle.” 

To be clear, there are winners and losers as the report lays out in an opening Venn diagram (show diagram). Three firms were listed as “leaders,” according to a scoring system based on 19 criteria ranging from “agentic media buying” to “customer lifecycle management” and “global delivery strategy”. They were, of course, the Big Three (Omnicom, Publicis and WPP). Dentsu and Havas led the “strong performers” group, along with Wpromote, PMG, Tinuiti and Horizon Media. Filling out the “contenders” category were Stagwell, Dept and Rise (a Quad agency). 

Private-equity-backed shops like Wpromote fared well, and Forrester’s description gave it props for pursuing agentic media buying as well as AEO abilities that “unites paid, owned, and earned authority-building with the measurement of visibility, sentiment, and traffic quality.” 

“We valued their measurement capabilities,” Pattisall said. “We valued their precision capabilities. We valued their planning acumen, their optimization mindset — all of that plays very well for that group. It is the reason that you see relatively smaller organizations in the ‘strong performer’ grouping.”

Reacting to its position as the highest-ranking independent in terms of strength of offering in the report, Wpromote CEO Andrea Bendzick cited the big opportunity for independents. 

“We’re at a point where the industry is being reshaped by AI, new ways of reaching consumers and undeniable pressure to connect marketing investments to business outcomes,” said Bendzick. “Independent agencies are well positioned to invest in those emerging areas and build their businesses around where clients are going, not where they’ve been.”

Other reaction to the report was mixed, with Publicis demurring from any comment (it was the only agency group that declined to participate in the report’s outreach for insights and explanations, as well as client-side input). With its run of successful client wins and poaches, the argument can be made that it doesn’t need to go out there and prove itself to prospective clients through a Forrester report, but it also is perceived as arrogant by some in the industry. 

Regardless, Forrester’s scoring credits the holdco’s media buying, principal media, and data and marketing sciences capabilities — and awarded Publicis the highest average score in strategy, a 4.4 out of 5. “These strengths plus its impressive media buying scale produce exceptional client media value. Customer lifecycle management also excels, with global client leads coordinating resource access and keeping implementation teams involved after launch,” reads the report. However, of the Big Three, it also scored the only 1s (the lowest score) in “agentic media buying” due to a lack of “tangible pilots, scaled partnerships, or evidence of meaningful client impact, and SEO/AEO which “lacks proactive experimentation.”

Omnicom declared validation for its acquisition of IPG, which Forrester credited it for being the largest buyer both domestically and globally. And it wasted no time in celebrating its solid ranking as a “leader”.  

“In a marketplace being reshaped by AI, commerce and increasingly complex consumer journeys, we believe Forrester offers marketers a valuable perspective on what truly differentiates a leader: the ability to connect intelligence, technology, partnerships and buying power to deliver measurable business value,” said Omnicom Media CEO Florian Adamski in a prepared statement. 

Regarding WPP, Pattisall noted that “their capabilities in the media marketplace exceed their perception in the marketplace,” due to the fact that Wall Street is still punishing the British-owned holdco for the sins of prior management. “What their stock price is isn’t going to drive their value to a client, and we’re measuring the latter and not the former,” he added. 

“What’s increasingly clear is that competitive advantage in marketing will come not from who owns or accumulates the most data but from who can unlock the most intelligence from it and put that intelligence to work,” said Lauren Wetzel, global president, data and technology solutions at WPP.

Interestingly, Stagwell, which many do not consider a holding company — scored somewhat poorly in the Wave report, averaging a 2.4 in strategy and a 2.44 in current offering. Only Rise (scoring a 1.6 in strategy) and Dept (a 2.2 in strategy) scoring lower averages. 

Pattisall in part attributed Stagwell’s lower score to “the newness of the Stagwell Media strategy,” which he credited with being “a very calculated and appropriate move to put together compatible capabilities to go to market at the group level, if if and when necessary.” 

But it got dinged, he added, because “they are a relatively new organization. Their mission and their vision and their position in the marketplace is not as sharp as the others because they have not been operating and functioning at this level but for only a couple of months.” 

Missing from the list because they either didn’t meet the $3.1 billion billings threshold or because Forrester clients weren’t as interested in them were S4 Capital’s Monks and other independents including Crossmedia or Brainlabs. 

Color by numbers

With midterm elections finally over — and one can once again watch Jeopardy without the constant bombardment of negative political ads — estimates for total  political ad spending vary from a low of $11.4 billion by AdImpact, which is seen as the most reliable figure, to OpenSecret’s $11.9 billion, which it said it based on an analysis of Federal Election Commission disclosure data. Either way it’s a record — and it seems to indicate that the 2028 presidential election cycle will raise the bar even higher. Whether candidates find other ways to spend their money besides 30-second TV spots remains to be seen. 

Takeoff & landing

• Publicis finally closed its $2.2 billion acquisition of data firm LiveRamp, following certain Federal Trade Commission stipulations of maintaining neutrality for the service, which is used by several competing agencies and their clients. Time will tell if concerns over that neutrality result in more agencies dropping it in favor of their own services or a competitor. Havas, for one, said it’s sticking with LiveRamp, as is Dentsu for now, while Omnicom and WPP are offering their own services. 
• Horizon Global, the joint venture between Horizon Media and Havas, picked up global media duties for Harley Davidson following a review. 
• Stagwell hired Kate Richling to be chief brand and communications officer for Stagwell Media, its beefed up iteration of Assembly. She comes over from S4 Capital’s Monks where she was global CMO. 

Direct quote

“The question CMOs are asking isn’t whether LiveRamp still works. It’s whether they want their customer data running through infrastructure owned by an agency holding company that competes with their other agencies. A neutrality pledge is a promise; neutrality by design is an architecture. More brands want their identity and audience data to stay in their own warehouse, under their own control, so they can work with any agency or partner without routing everything through one company’s pipes. The deal didn’t create that shift, but it has definitely sped it up.”

—Jitendra Kumar, head of commercial, advertising, at Hightouch, on clients questioning whether they should stick with LiveRamp after Publicis’ acquisition, or consider alternatives.

Speed reading

• Did you miss Digiday’s Media Buying Summit in late October? This recap will give you a broad sense of what we covered, what was talked about and what’s happening in the media agency world. 
• Sam Bradley also dug into an angle from the Summit that agencies are dealing with brief bloat, largely the result of clients and junior agency folk relying too much on AI to write briefs and pitches. 
• I examined how the Summit also revealed that retail media and commerce media’s futures look bright in the still-growing in-store media segment. 
• As you read above, Publicis closed its deal to buy LiveRamp, but the move led Bradley to asses the case for and against sticking with the service, as he also explained why one marketer, Liquid Death, decided to move on from LiveRamp.
• Finally, Bradley and Krystal Scanlon explained the reasons Google’s search abilities are no longer a given in every advertisers’ marketing plan.