Future of Marketing Briefing: CMOs are still haunted by hard questions about value of ad creative

The study by the WPP-owned firm, which included 115 brand marketers, also found a disparity between the rigor used to question media investments versus creative. While 80% agree that media and creative are as important as each other, 59% said they apply more scrutiny to media effectiveness than creative, and only 40% said they applied the same level of scrutiny across the board. 

Most starkly, a majority of marketers in the study, 62%, said they were spending on media that carried creative assets whose true value — positive or negative — was an unknown quantity. Similarly, recent Forrester research suggested that the bulk of generative AI investments (81%) were directed toward creating efficiency initiatives, rather than solutions that measure marketing effectiveness (49%).

Gain Theory’s study sits in awkward contrast with the frothy celebration of advertising creativity currently wrapping up on the Cote d’Azur — and with the billions of dollars spent by brands like Google, Coca-Cola and Nike to divert the attention of the World Cup’s audiences toward brand awareness efforts.

Interest in measuring the impact of ad creative is growing. BetMGM’s chief revenue officer Matt Prevost recently told me the company boasted a team of 50 staffers devoted to media analytics and marketing spend optimization, for example. And CPG firms like Hershey’s are building bespoke measurement frameworks with partners like Tracer and Mutinex, using AI agents to speed up evaluation and effectiveness reporting.

Investment is growing, too. AI media mix modeling (MMM) firm Mutinex claimed to have recorded 150% year-on-year growth in 2025, while U.S. revenue at effectiveness measurement firm System one grew 3% in the first half of the 2026 financial year, according to its latest earnings report.

Meanwhile some marketers are attempting to build out measurement frameworks that account for both media and creative levers. Electronics brand Lenovo, for example, recently ran a campaign supporting its British B2B business in the run-up to the World Cup, which it sponsors.

The campaign used a strategy designed with ad tech firm Seedtag that involved contextual targeting (in particular, a solution combining neuroscientific findings about user behavior and vector analysis) to run ads against content likely to find its audience of IT and tech professionals in an excitable or curious mood. To that end, Lenovo ended up running across display and video inventory on Eurogamer and soccer coverage on Sky Sports and The Guardian, among other sites.

Adrien Boyer, evp EMEA of Seedtag, said that the campaign’s creative was adapted to match the contextual targeting and audience data used in its media plan. 

Lenovo worked with Seedtag, as well as Kantar and Lumen, for brand lift and attention studies intended to gauge the impact of both its media targeting and creative. According to Barbara Falanga, Europe & META, Media Center of Excellence director at Lenovo, the campaign drove an 8% increase in brand favorability, a 6% rise in consideration and a 94% boost in awareness.

“To improve planning and strategy, we really need visibility on data and performance,” said Falanga. 

Results from the tests are being used to inform the next phase of campaign activity. Although she said she was keen to scale up measurement efforts, Falanga said that finding a consistent measurement approach across the brand’s different campaigns (not all of which use the B2B work’s contextual strategy) was a challenge.

“The challenge I see now is [to] have a strong measurement framework across all the different platforms that we are using and track the results from our brand campaigns,” she said.

In any case, Gain Theory’s research suggests that examples like Lenovo’s might be isolated. Its study showed the majority of CMOs are still unsure that their creative is working as intended.

“Marketing leaders feel good about their creative, but can’t prove it’s working, and CFOs are starting to notice,” said Russell Nuzzo, global head of new media measurement at Gain Theory. 

That confidence gap is costing CMOs budget. Amid a long-term reduction in marketing outlay as a proportion of sales revenue (on average 7.8%, according to recent Gartner figures), 26.5% of those surveyed said their budgets had been cut as a result of not providing enough evidence that their spending was having the desired effect.

“At the end of the day, If you can’t measure it, you can’t defend it,” he added.

Numbers to know

73% of marketers believe AI will drown brands in a “sea of sameness,” according to Accenture Song

15.4 million: the number of U.K. viewers that tuned in to watch England’s goalless draw with Ghana earlier this week

54% of consumers say their purchasing decisions are impacted by influencers or creators, per Influencer

What we’ve covered

Creators have become a Cannes Lions mainstay, but the majority of those flying down to the south of France want to use it as a commercial opportunity, not a corporate jaunt. Seb, Kimeko and Krystal’s on-location briefing explains what’s changed.

Walmart’s multi-billion dollar acquisition of streaming firm Vibe.co was probably the biggest marketing news splash of the week. Ronan explained why the supermarket chain sprung for the “Google Ads of streaming”.

Amazon is trialling a new ad format: agentic ads within its Alexa (nee Rufus) shopping bot. Amazon users see an ad and can complete a purchase all without leaving the ad. Kimeko had the scoop.

Lipton Ice Tea is using influencer marketing agency Billion Dollar Boy’s “Social Hubs” as on-the-ground social teams in each market, reported Alyssa.

With the World Cup expected to create the largest sports betting market in history, I spoke to sportsbook BetMGM and prediction markets platform Kalshi about the different strategies they’re employing in order to secure their share.

What we’re reading

Mark Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Create a Prediction Markets App

Speaking of prediction markets, The New York Times reported that Meta is working on its own. The company, under the direction of boss Mark Zuckerberg, has set up a small team to build a smartphone app involving a video game-like points system.

Universal Ads launches in the U.K. across Channel 4, ITV, and Sky

Comcast’s SMB-focused Universal Ads business has expanded across the Atlantic via partnerships with the U.K.’s principal TV ad suppliers Channel 4, ITV and Sky.

Facebook rolls out an AI companion app for creators

Meta’s Creator Studio page manager is returning for Facebook, but it’s been retooled as an AI companion app. The assistant makes recommendations concerning content, performance and audience engagement, per Techcrunch.

The Data-Center Boom Is Sparking a Third Wave of Inflation

Data centers, the hard infrastructure upholding the AI revolution in marketing, are springing up everywhere these days. There’s even one being built where I’m based in Edinburgh. The WSJ reported on how the vast investment behind those centers (some $741 billion this year) is driving inflation in the U.S.