Prediction markets and sportsbook brands compete to capitalize on World Cup betting market

The focus is echoed among BetMGM’s immediate rivals. DraftKings has been running an ad featuring former Mexico and Manchester United striker Javier “Chicharito” Hernández (who’s currently doing commentating duties on Fox, the World Cup’s English-language rightsholder in the U.S.). Meanwhile, Fanduel is running a spot starring former U.S. men’s player Landon Donovan. But the tournament is also a chance for prediction market platforms, namely Polymarket and Kalshi, to tempt bettors away from more established firms. 

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While the former is spending heavily on creators and influencers, the latter has released a campaign including a World Cup-focused spot led by former Brazil defender Marcelo, Angel Di Maria and Rio Ferdinand (both also formerly of United) discussing their betting plans for the tournament in a spot resembling an international game of telephone. It’s also pushing for non-sports fans via a gnomic promo video featuring Timothée Chalamet; both are running worldwide.

“We want to have a lot of trading activity, [and] have a lot of new users… we’re continuously building brand equity around these moments,” said Keaton Inglis, head of growth at Kalshi.

Game plans

Though betting ad spend peaked in 2021, sports betting companies still collectively spent £3.9 billion on advertising last year in the U.S. Brands like BetMGM and DraftKings may be familiar sights on television, but according to one estimate, 73% of that went to digital and performance channels. 

BetMGM, for example, has teamed up with former U.S. men’s national team (again, also of United) goalkeeper Tim Howard. It’s prioritizing CTV, online video, digital display and paid social. “80 to 90% of the money we will spend on the World Cup will be in digital or performance channels,” Prevost said, without providing specific details.

In part that’s due to the patchwork of gambling regulations in place across North America following the landmark 2018 overturning of the federal ban on sports betting. BetMGM must operate multiple media plans simultaneously to make the most of the moment, and a digital-heavy media mix provides flexibility: “What we might do in North Carolina or Kansas is very different to what we’ll be doing in Michigan or Ontario. You end up needing to be very tailored in your marketing,” said Prevost.

In order to track the impact of its investments in each state, Prevost said the company recently began working with an AI media mix modeling provider, which he declined to name.

Marketers require a strong data operation for such a performance-first approach to yield results. Sportsbook brand Fanatics, for example, recently overhauled its marketing approach, moving from a laser-focus on cost per acquisition to lifetime value (LTV).

Instead of over‑targeting against narrow behaviors, Andy Magnes, director, paid marketing, Fanatics Betting & Gaming, told Digiday the company now optimizes directly on value and lets the algorithm discover which audiences and behaviors deliver that value, driving a measurable uplift in projected LTV. 

“Taking a step back, our industry is a very high-spending, top-heavy industry, so competitors go really broad,” said Magnes. “A lot of our revenue is being driven by a small segment of users… We wanted to combine unduplicated reach with the ability to model off of our highest value signals.”

Meanwhile Kalshi is opting to run its ad primarily on YouTube, Instagram and Facebook. “Everything we do is really tilted towards social,” said Inglis, who declined to share details of Kalshi’s ad budget. He said that Kalshi’s in-house team, working with production company Es Muy Good, had spun up the World Cup campaign in a month.

The World Cup’s gravitational pull means Kalshi and BetMGM are competing with each other, the rest of their sector, and with advertisers in other categories. But they have different motives for showing up.

Network effects

Inglis said Kalshi hoped to use the Cup’s audience draw to boost its brand awareness inside the U.S. and beyond — hence its cast of non-U.S. stars. He said the brand’s campaigns were expected to hold their own as content, as well as creative assets in paid channels. “Paid is a big driver for down the funnel but if [an ad] doesn’t have momentum out of the gate, it’s dead,” he said.

It’s a strategy that’s been wielded for years in mature betting markets like the U.K., for example, where bookmaker PaddyPower has a well-worn niche in humorous ad campaigns. 

James Kirkham,co-founder of brand consultancy Iconic, said brands that tapped into the cultural soup around the Cup, rather than just highlighting the betting experience, could make longer-term gains. “Do something genuinely entertaining, that is actually dealing with after the final whistle, [that] plays into the culture,” he advised.

For Prevost, the tournament isn’t just an opportunity to capture BetMGM’s share of the betting pool. It’s a chance to convert U.S. hobby gamblers used to betting on college basketball or the Super Bowl into soccer fans with skin in the game, too. “We’re all going to be looking to steal one share from one another. But the [bigger] opportunity for us as a brand is to introduce betting on soccer to a combination of new bettors and to our established base,” he added.

“You are about to encounter a lot of people who are interested in betting on a sport that they’ve never bet on,” said brand strategist Bennie Reed, founder of consultancy This Will Be Good. “Sports betting is the ultimate space for bragging rights,” said Reed. “It’s very word of mouth: it’s you and your five friends, talking about what’s your go-to app for this stuff, what are the types of bets you like… You win by winning fan groups, one group at a time.”

Ronan Shields contributed to this report.