Advertising’s dealmakers are gearing up for a 2025 surge

Month after month of 2024 delivered notable deals, from Walmart’s February acquisition of Vizio to Outbrain’s August purchase of Teads.

Yet, skepticism lingered. Inflation, political uncertainty and fluctuating ad spend kept many dealmakers from proclaiming the triumphant return of M&A. Instead, they framed it as a cautious revival. That revival, however, is poised to gather steam.

Dealmakers — strategic and private equity alike — are getting clearer on the unknowns, and for the latter, there’s dry powder waiting to be deployed. Meanwhile, investors want returns on their outlays and founders face mounting pressure to bite the bullet and close deals.

Or, as Charles Ping, managing director at Winterberry Group, put it bluntly, “Deals have to happen.”

“We’ve seen conversations coming through much faster in the past two to three months,” he continued.

Many of those conversations — along with future ones — are likely grappling with the incoming administration of U.S. president elect Donald Trump and the potential ripple effects of the administration’s policies on dealmaking. Tariffs, for instance, often fuel inflation, which pushes up interest rates — the kryptonite of M&A.

Still, there’s cautious optimism in the ad industry, since whatever tariffs are introduced after Trump takes office may prove more symbolic than substantive. And with Trump expected to usher in more deal-friendly antitrust enforcement, the climate for M&A could improve further.

Ping expanded on the point: “The general direction of the thought is that Trump will impose totemic tariffs on territories that don’t do much, allowing him to keep true to the tariff narrative that was part of the election rally cry, but without the macroeconomic downsides on the US economy (inflation, interest rates rises etc) that would come with very broad tariffs.”

Which is to say, it would take a significant or unelected disruption to derail dealmakers in 2025. And unlike the last two years, they’re expected to be more evenly distributed between strategic and private equity players. Strategics may have led recent M&A waves, but private equity is primed to step up — driven, in part at least, by increasingly attractive valuations.

Consider ad tech companies, for instance.

At their pandemic peak, the media revenue multiple was a staggering 8.4 times in the first quarter of 2021, according to U.K.-based financing and accounting firm Finerva. Fast forward to Q4 2024 and that multiple was down to 2.7 times. The market correction over those intervening years has brought valuation multiples back to more realistic, and enticing, levels.

“The headline multiple has probably come down a notch but I think everyone in this space knew that the 2021 to 2022 [boom] period was not sustainable for M&A. There were so many mandates going out [back then] that the buyers didn’t have as much negotiation power,” Matthew Lacey, partner at M&A advisory firm Waypoint Partners, explained.

Whatever shape this year’s M&A wave takes, the action will center on the usual growth hot spots: retail media, CTV, AI and influencer marketing.

Much of the activity will be fueled by the war chests companies built up during last year’s fundraising rounds. Growth was the driving force behind those moves, with businesses eager to fund expansion into new markets or diversify into fresh areas.

And then there’s consolidation. Omnicom’s proposed acquisition of Interpublic Group could trigger a domino effect, prompting further moves among agency giants and private equity-backed independents. Meanwhile, the slow but inevitable shift of some of ad tech’s largest players from point solutions to integrated adds another layer.

Either way, the industry’s upper echelons are leaning deeper into an era of consolidation — one that’s increasingly fueled by a slowdown among the largest companies, a burgeoning market for independents, and the speed and scale of private equity activity.

“We’re seeing more buyers look at businesses that are able to get them closer to either building or sustaining a moat against competitors,” said Jeremy Goldman, senior. Director of marketing, commerce, and tech briefings at eMarketer.  “Ultimately, they’re thinking about how they can protect their price point and then expand into other services.”

All things considered, the outlook for M&A over the next 12 months is optimistic, but the road ahead promises to be anything but smooth. CEOs, dealmakers and entrepreneurs are preparing for potential curveballs, including U.S. politics, China’s economy, the fate of the Chrome browser and the future of TikTok.

Among these, the macroeconomic picture may prove the most impactful. It is, after all, a healthy macroeconomic environment that supports ad spend, which, in turn, fuels valuations and deal activity. Without it, the momentum could falter. For now, though, that scenario seems unlikely. Globally, advertising is likely to remain strong both in the U.S. and Europe, according to recent forecasts from industry doyens like Brian Wieser and holding companies WPP and IPG.

“It took brands a while to realise that the uncertainty people had about the world wasn’t actually fully translating into how they spent their money,” said Goldman. “Once they understood that, marketers realized they were leaving money on the table and adjusted their advertising plans accordingly. That’s why ad forecasts have held up so well.”

Taken together, it’s clear that 2025 will mark an evolution, not a revolution, for M&A. The pace of activity will likely accelerate, but it will be shaped by a more settled market — one that’s been through the frenzy of post-pandemic consolidation, fueled by panic, low interest rates and a rush to digitization, and then wrangled with the inevitable comedown as markets adjusted to rising inflation, cautious spending and regulatory scrutiny.