Marketers question TikTok ban refunds ahead of Supreme Court debate

For the first time since whispers of a ban began six years ago, TikTok seemed to be bracing for the possibility that its American swan song might not be far off.

“In an email, our TikTok rep said if you reserve inventory and the app is banned, or for whatever reason the inventory cannot be delivered as promised, you will be refunded,” said the U.S. agency executive.

It all but confirmed to Chris that those contingency plans he’d helped his clients put together would be needed despite TikTok’s insistence on the contrary. This means those contingency plans were no longer just a precaution — they were about to become a necessity.

Later today, the Supreme Court will hear arguments over a law that bans the app in the U.S. unless its owner, ByteDance, divests. Signed by President Biden in April 2024 and upheld by a Washington, D.C., federal court in December, the law is set to take effect on Jan. 19.

The court’s decision will determine the fate of a cultural juggernaut, powered by a sophisticated algorithm that drives an endless stream of personalized short videos to 170 million U.S. users. 

For many, especially younger Americans, TikTok is more than an app — it’s their go-to source for entertainment, connection and information.

Its absence wouldn’t just leave a void in their digital lives — it would send marketers scrambling to fill the gap to find alternative ways to reach them.

Chris, for one, has little faith that TikTok’s make-good assurances would smooth that transition. To him, they feel less like guarantees and more like acknowledgements of the inevitable. After all, the promises weren’t cast-iron since they weren’t written into contracts. And that uncertainty is already spooking some brands, who are wary of pouring ad dollars into an app that might not even be permitted in the U.S. soon.

“They’re [TikTok] writing it [make-goods] in emails, but it’s not written into the contracts,” the U.S. exec added. “This has definitely been a hiccup for some brands, who were quite concerned about spending $300,000, for example, up front without the assurance of the refund detail being in the contract. It became a discussion of, ‘Do you want to take the risk of not doing it?’”

The frustration runs deeper than vague promises. Some marketers feel like TikTok is sidestepping the hard questions — like where production and creator credits will land if campaigns are derailed. And rather than issuing refunds outright, they say that TikTok is pushing them to redirect funds tied to programs like Pulse, production deals and creator partnerships to its non-U.S. platforms. 

“Where do the production credits go? Where do the creator credits go? And you know what their solution is? Spend it in markets where we’re still active. They don’t want to give the money back,” one ad exec explained on condition of anonymity. “The frustrating part for me is we’ve been asking them for solutions for so long. Get your head out of your derriere. A bill doesn’t move this fast without real consequences.”

These comments underscore how much the relationship between TikTok and marketers has shifted in just a month. Just last fall, TikTok was aggressively courting upfront deals for 2025, pitching them as proof of its indispensability to the U.S. economy. Now, those pitches feel more subdued. Instead of boldly selling the future, TikTok execs are playing defense — focusing less on maximizing revenue and more on preserving goodwill as the clock ticks down.

“As the ban looms closer, contingency planning is a top priority and brands need to make a decision to hedge bets and prioritize mitigating risk or hold their ground and hope the ban does not materialize,” said Courtney Werpy, associate director of performance media at Collective Measures. “If banned, the decision may be out of brands’ hands and the fork in the road may look a little more straight and narrow.”

Other marketers are following a similar playbook, leaning into contingency plans that feel more like media planning drills. According to five ad execs interviewed for this article, these plans are already well underway accounting for every potential outcome.

Amy Rumpler, svp of search and social media services at Basis Technologies, said her team is still signing insertion orders for 2025 campaigns beyond January. At the same time, they’re proactively offering alternative strategies for clients wary of committing to TikTok past the looming deadline.

That’s not to say marketers wouldn’t feel the loss if the app disappeared. But they’ve had six years to prepare for this moment. The real question isn’t whether TikTok is replaceable — it’s whether it needs replacing. TikTok’s DNA is everywhere. Even if its algorithm disappears, its influence remains etched into the fabric of social media. The platform itself may not be as essential as the experience it pioneered.

“Although [TikTok] is very successful and very impactful, P&G for example, is the biggest spender on there,” said Joe Gagliese, cofounder and ceo of Viral Nation. “But it’s not going to create a hole that can’t be rebuilt elsewhere.”

TikTok did not respond to Digiday’s request for comment.