The outlook for ad tech M&A in 2025

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But what kind of mergers and acquisitions will keep corporate development execs busy in the coming months: distressed exits or frothy returns, and who will be in market?

As of March 2025, several notable M&A deals have been made in the ad tech sector since the start of the year, with strategic players helping to swell the ranks of potential ad tech acquirers. Notable deals during the period include Publicis Groupe’s purchase of Lotame and T-Mobile’s activity, which marked a return of telcos in the space. 

Even noted M&A outlier The Trade Desk wrote a check for Sincera, building on the Q4 trend of strategic ad tech players entering the market, as exemplified by MediaOcean’s purchase of Innovid and Experian’s purchase of Audigent.    

‘Not banking on an IPO market’

A further sign of a return to the halcyon days of ad tech, i.e., 2021 or the mid-2010s, was MNTN’s announcement of its intention to IPO in its S-1 filing. However, sources approached by Digiday suggested any such move could be an anomaly, with LUMA Partners’ CEO, Terence Kawaja, observing that not all such filings will result in IPOs. 

“I’m not banking on an IPO market [similar to 2021],” he said, adding his observation that “the industry is healthier now” than at the beginning of the decade.  

When quizzed on which constituency would drive deal volume in the coming months, he noted how “the preponderance of dialog has been driven by strategics; with private equity, that tends to be more correlated to interest rates.”  

Historical cycles     

Stephen Masters of GTCR — a PE firm that purchased demand-side platform Simpli.fi in 2017 and later sold a stake to Blackstone in a 2021 in a deal valuing the ad tech firm at $1.5 billion — explained how it is important to consider the market dynamics of the mid-to-late 2010s when contemplating the contemporary landscape. 

“There were a couple of [ad tech] failures on the public markets around 2015… and that experience meant there were relatively underappreciated assets in the late 2010s, despite really strong growth, that created a good dealmaking environment for PE,” he said.

Whether the current widespread public market declines will fuel a further swoop for ad tech from PE circles, similar to how AdTheorent was taken private last year, remains to be seen. Still, more sources stated this would be governed by PE’s’ comfort levels with the impact of AI on the business models of ad tech. 

For many, Scope3’s recent launch exemplifies the potential of the disruptive impact of “agentic AI tools,” with the business models of traditional programmatic trading outfits and measurement firms expected to be challenged.

Dave Helmreich, CEO of TripleLift — an ad tech company that was bought by PE firm Vista Equity Partners in 2021 after it considered an IPO — echoed Kawaja’s thoughts that not all S-1 filings will result in a public listing. 

He added that his firm used its funds (the company was valued at $1.4 billion in the latest PE deal) to subsequently drive differentiation as a supply-side platform, principally with its $150 million purchase of 1plusX* in 2022.

‘Covid whiplash’ 

Sources approached by Digiday noted that pressurized margins will most likely impact the scale of 2025 exits compared to the more frothy days of 2021. 

Additionally, premiums in 2021 were also driven by the fact that many ad tech companies were entertaining overtures from both PE firms as well as their peers that were newly minted on the public markets. “The difference between 2021 and the late 2010s is that there was a lot of exuberance in both public and private markets… and valuations as a result were much higher [in 2021],” observed GTCR’s Master.

He further echoed Kawaja’s observation that the prevalence of AI may cause some PE entities to wait until they can fully understand the impact such technologies will have on the space before they make significant further investments.        

Meanwhile, several sources, many of whom requested anonymity to maintain business relationships, noted how demand-side platforms’ and SSPs’ take-rates have been under pressure compared to 2021. 

One corporate development source, who declined to be named, noted that some mid-range ad tech companies picked up by PE firms at the height of the 2021 M&A surge will likely be offloaded as margin compression means they could soon breach their debt covenants.  

The source added, “In 2021, valuations were high, and there was reason to believe the dynamics that drove those trends would continue, but what you actually got was stagflation — a lot of people call that the ‘Covid whiplash.’”  

A separate financing source, who similarly requested anonymity, added, “If you overpaid for assets in 2021, you might find it difficult to restore value, but you could have big retailers like Walmart looking to buy their own tech. Why wouldn’t you when you have players like Amazon gaining in the market?”  

Meanwhile, Atlas Technology Group’s Brian Andersen — a banker who worked on deals this year, including DoubleVerify’s purchase of Rockerbox and Publicis’ Lotame deal — told Digiday 2025 activity would likely be “muddled.” 

Andersen’s comments referenced widespread cutbacks in the digital sector following its massive acceleration during the Covid-19 pandemic — as exemplified by mass layoffs at Big Tech companies.    

He added, “Personally, I thought 2024 would be more active for M&A, but in reality, it turned into more of a recovery year. I’m still convinced it [2025] will be a decent year.”  

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the company’s name was “X+1.”