Media Buying Briefing: It’s a world party at the World Cup, unless you’re looking to get in now

It’s safe to predict, as some outlets already have, that the battle for rights to the 2030 Cup will be fierce given the ratings success of this year’s matches. Fox landed this year’s rights for a very low $485 million The 2030 is to be held in Morocco, Portugal and Spain, but it’s worth remembering those countries are between five and six hours ahead of New York’s time zone (add another three hours for L.A.), which translates to afternoon or time-delayed games — and probably lesser ratings.

Nevertheless, hydration breaks and all, this year’s tournament has delivered strong ratings for both Fox’s English-language and Telemundo’s Spanish-language coverage. For example, the Group stage matches on Telemundo were more than double (up 122% on average) those in Qatar in 2022. The U.S. team is averaging about 22 million viewers across its three group stage matches (ratings for the July 1 knockout win wasn’t available at press time). 

Media buyers from both independent and holding company agencies say they’re quite content with the over-delivery. And they expect both rights holders — as well as the social, influencer, audio and out-of-home media content that surrounds these games — to jack up rates given the current heat around them (and not just the record-breaking heat of the weather) in any open inventory left between now and the July 19 final.

“I was cautiously optimistic going into the World Cup, and I think it has exceeded expectations thus far,” said Adam Schwartz, svp and director of national broadcast, sports media at Horizon Media, who said he was initially concerned about FIFA expanding the number of teams to include small countries like Cape Verde (whose 40-year-old goalie Vozinha became an instant social media star following a draw with powerhouse Spain in the group stage). “There was some negativity leading into this … but I think everything else has been positive.”

Ratings especially for the U.S. and Mexico games have overdelivered, Schwartz added. “All three host countries [including Canada] obviously advancing helps a lot with the ratings,” he said. “That’ll only continue to help if the U.S. and Mexico go further. All the numbers we’ve seen from a rating standpoint have been astronomical and just blowing away everything that we kind of anticipated going in.” 

One holding company buyer, who declined to speak for attribution, did note that audiences may be larger this year in part because of Nielsen’s change in how it counts out-of-home viewing today — the inference being that prior World Cups were being assessed more narrowly by the ratings firm. “Audiences are being counted that wouldn’t have otherwise been counted through the expansion of Nielsen’s formula to generate ratings,” said the buyer. “I think both networks, Spanish language and English language, are benefiting from that.”

The irony for the rights holders, of course, is that overdelivering on ratings doesn’t allow them to go back to brands and media agencies to ask for more than the ratings guaranteed — whereas if the games had underdelivered, makegoods would have been in order. “Moving into the knockout round and the semifinals and finals, obviously, the deeper the U.S. goes, the better it is for everybody,” said Schwartz. “Same thing with Mexico, on the Hispanic side of the house. If those two teams make runs, forget about it — the deliveries will be crazy … If those two teams make it, it’ll change everything, just in terms of how [Fox and Telemundo] are approaching whatever last-minute inventory they might have. It would be very, very expensive, and I would expect that you would have to purchase something else in accompaniment of that unit.”

It’s the rare value of sports still delivering large audiences in bulk that holds the real appeal, explained Rita Steinberg, vp of media at full-service shop Fuse Create. “That is increasingly hard to find, so when a property can bring millions of people together in real time, it still carries a lot of value … My read is that the event is validating the premium attached to World Cup inventory, but buyers will still be looking closely at post-campaign delivery.”

For many advertisers who either chose to pass on going through the front door of direct sponsorship, the alternatives were far more abundant this time around, thanks to a strong creator/influencer presence and the social media buzz that’s come along with it. 

“The strongest opportunities are probably for brands that are not only in the live game, but also showing up around the broader fan journey: highlights, social conversation, audio, creators, retail and market-level activations,” said Steinberg. 

Are there any last-minute opportunities left for marketers? The anonymous buyer noted only if you’re willing to pay a big premium even when buying outside of Fox and Telemundo. “Could I go find avails today? Yeah, they’re not sold out, with the issuance of hydration breaks a month, month and a half before the tournament,” they explained. “I’m sure the networks have been able to monetize that to a certain point … And then just through digital and social platforms, there’s always opportunities.” —Sam Bradley contributed to this story.

Color by numbers

Believe it or not, but apparently half of advertisers are guessing at their B2B marketing choices. According to a new survey out of martech agency Madison Logic that was conducted by The Harris Poll of more than 300 U.S. marketing execs, nearly half (48%) admit they often feel they are “guessing” which marketing activities are driving consumer purchasing decisions. 

The survey also found that 84% say modern marketing is no longer just about creative assets, it’s about the ability to prove ROI. Drilling more deeply into that insight, 79% said modern marketing is moving toward an era of driven by performance-first strategies, while 90% believe marketers who cannot clearly demonstrate business impact will struggle to justify budgets in the future.

According to Keith Turco, CEO of Madison Logic, marketers should “stop guessing and go to the data and be testing and learning … They’re doing that through programmatic now, because it’s very targeted and they can use data to do it.”

Takeoff & landing

• Omnicom Media had a good week, expanding its relationship with IBM to become global media AOR, from handling just EMEA — media spend is estimated at about $190 million. Later in the week, Omnicom Media also secured Adidas’ $512 million global media business, to be run under PHD and taken from WPP Media. Finally, UM in Australia reupped AGL Energy’s media business. 
• There was lots of other media account activity last week in the wake of Cannes Lions: independent PMG won Michael Kors’ media business for 58 markets across EMEA;  Publicis re-secured its media remit for Samsung in Australia; Also in Western Australia, Dentsu won the media business for wellness community center MercyCare; Independent Wpromote won regional car wash firm Spotless Brands’ media business; Chicago indie Schafer Condon Carter landed the media and creative business for Navy Pier, a major tourist destination in the city. 
• At WPP, the holding company announced its expansion plans for WPP Enterprise Solutions,  rolling out a portfolio of proprietary solutions designed to help clients “accelerate growth in an AI-powered economy.” Separately WPP Media’s CMI Media Group launched a new division called Ad Astra, which blends technology and data to improve performance and ROI for clients.

Direct quote

“Nothing should change from a media planning and buying perspective for now.  Once the spinoff is complete (maybe 12 months), there will be pressure for NBCUniversal to grow advertising and subscription revenue without the support of Comcast. This will likely push available inventory towards higher CPM media purchases, like addressable or data-heavy media products and reduce focus on traditional, linear TV.” 

Luke Moore, vp managing director, media partner, FUSE Create, talking about the spinoff of NBCUniversal from parent Comcast.

Speed reading

• Ronan Shields dug into the reasons behind Walmart’s acquisition of Vibe, and the short answer is to boost Walmart Connect’s CTV ambitions. 
• Seb Joseph and Alyssa Mercante teamed up to explain how and why creators and influencers were treated like the new rock stars of marketing at Cannes Lions. 
• Krystal Scanlon sat down to interview David Dugan, the man behind OpenAI’s advertising push.