Why there’s a CPM slump in a growing CTV market

“We’ve seen CPMs drop year over year,” said Dan Larkman, CEO of CTV performance advertising business Keynes Digital. “It’s around 19%.”

That’s based on ads bought through private programmatic marketplaces — direct deals between Keynes and TV networks.

It’s not just private marketplaces. In the open marketplace, where ad prices are set in real-time, pricing isn’t faring much better.

CPMs there, along with those from direct deals are 20% cheaper than they were a year ago for clients of Goodway Group, said Tom Swierczewski, vp of media investment. 

Others have seen even steeper dips.

Take TripleLift. CTV CPMs it sells to buyers are anywhere between 10 and 30% cheaper depending on whether they’re bought in private or open auctions. Elsewhere at media agency Canvas Worldwide, those CPMs are around 20% cheaper than they were a year ago. 

Few buyers want to quote exact dollar figures — CPMs are still sensitive territory — but most say the average CTV buy comes in below $30 — unless the ads are being bought from top tier platforms.

Granted, these are all directional snapshots — CPMs vary widely depending on the buy, after all. Even so, the trend is clear: rates are falling fast — a first since Netflix, Amazon and Disney started chasing CTV ad dollars. That comes even as the U.S. CTV ad market is expected to hit $33.4 billion this year, per eMarketer. Growth isn’t the issue. What’s shifting is how that growth is valued — and priced. The market is maturing and with that comes growing pains.

Part of this is structural. Netflix’s CPM reset last year pushed pricing expectations lower. Others followed suit, favoring sell-through over scarcity. In some corners, it’s sparked a race to the bottom.

“Supply is growing much faster than the demand at the moment, and as a result the CTV marketplace is undergoing a price correction,” said Omara Hernandez, svp and head of national investment at Canvas Worldwide.

Even the anecdotal feedback paints a consistent picture.

“In the direct response marketplace where Rain the Growth Agency operates, CPMs remain well below market averages,” said Rachel Baker, its svp and head of video investment and partnerships, without giving exact figures. “We’re continuing to see supply outpace demand, creating a buyer’s market and we expect that trend to persist throughout the rest of the year.”

But not all the pressure is coming from the sell side. 

Advertisers are getting more efficient too. With better data and sharper tools, they’re targeting more precisely and negotiating harder.

Which is why CPMs in both private and open programmatic marketplaces for Collective Measures clients are down 20 to 25% year over year, according to its associate director for brand media, Leah Lam.

“This was when we explored different new platforms versus existing campaigns experiencing drops, showing it is less about demand changing and more about increasing competition,” she continued.

In theory, this shift should eventually push prices back up. But so far, that rebound hasn’t materialized.

“I think the dip is going to continue for at least another couple of months,” said Swierczewski. “It’s always tricky to predict Q4 because it’s so unpredictable, but I would anticipate a dip of a couple more percentage points throughout this year.”

Despite the uncertainty, there are signs of resilience for media owners — if they know where to look.

In 2023, OpenX removed sellers and stripped out non-CTV content (think fireplace apps, UGC, mobile, etc.) from its CTV supply. Doing so gave buyers greater transparency into what they’re actually paying for and how to value it, said Tyler Romasco, svp of global publisher development at OpenX.

The other reason: curation. It’s the ad tech trend of the moment, and for OpenX, a meaningful one. More than 60% of its CTV deals now involve curated packages. And those deals are delivering: CPMs are 27% higher and bid density is up 45% compared to the open exchange, said Romasco.

The message: not all CTV is created equal. Pockets of curated high-quality supply are not only holding value — they’re gaining it.

“CTV isn’t about cheap reach any more,” said Eliza Davies, vp of CTV supply at TripleLift. “Marketers want measurable outcomes and are pushing for more deals, discounts and ROI based on real performance.”

Ultimately, the drop in CPMs doesn’t signal a crisis. It’s a reset. The CTV market is growing but the way value is defined — and priced — is changing. The sell side is still figuring it out. So are the buyers. Until then, falling rates remain the best indicator of a market trying to rebalance.