Ad Tech Briefing: The industry is rethinking its foundations as a new world order is established

That uncertainty was a recurring theme at the recent Marketecture conference hosted in New York City last week, where executives and analysts broadly agreed that the current gear shift is comparable to earlier waves such as the debut of the desktop web and the subsequent shifts to mobile and streaming. This time, however, AI — particularly large language models and emerging “agentic” systems — could rewire both consumer behavior and the underlying mechanics of programmatic advertising. 

The inevitability of ads

Ari Paparo, founder of Marketecture, framed the moment as one of rapid experimentation during his on-stage presentation, where he contextualized how new technologies have reshaped media consumption as well as advertising economics.

For example, younger audiences are already integrating AI tools into everyday online activity while simultaneously questioning their reliability, reflecting a broader consumer shift toward influencer-led discovery and fragmented media environments. 

Predictably, most conference attendees shared the view that advertising is the most natural monetization model for AI systems, with Terence Kawaja, CEO of LUMA Partners, arguing that LLMs’ capital requirements make ad revenue almost inevitable. Ad tech’s most famous investment banker believes that subscription revenue alone is unlikely to cover the massive infrastructure costs of AI development, so advertising will likely remain the dominant economic engine behind these platforms. 

The Trade Desk’s thoughts

However, the structure of that advertising may look very different from today’s formats. Kawaja suggested LLM monetization will likely evolve beyond traditional CPM pricing toward performance-driven or affiliate-style models, reflecting the high-intent signals generated by conversational AI interactions. In such a scenario, a broader ecosystem of specialized partners would still emerge around the AI platforms rather than the models fully vertically integrating the advertising stack themselves. 

For Jeff Green, CEO of The Trade Desk, the rise of AI represents both an opportunity and a structural shift in how programmatic advertising works. Speaking on stage with Marketecture’s Paparo, Green argued the mechanics of programmatic — with millions of ad impressions, campaigns and optimization variables being processed in milliseconds — make the industry unusually well suited for AI and agent-based systems.

Green shared his view that AI agents are particularly effective at navigating the complexity of media buying. For example, a single campaign optimization decision might involve thousands of potential adjustments across targeting, bidding, frequency caps, creative formats or channel mix. AI systems are well-suited to exploring those permutations and identifying the most efficient combination, a task that historically required large teams of human traders. 

However, just how that lands is unclear, though Green did tease that The Trade Desk has already begun experimenting with AI integrations, notably through a limited beta program with Anthropic that lets participants use AI assistants to help generate campaigns within the platform. While much of the experimentation remains early-stage, it remains unclear just what viable business models around emerging AI-driven inventory, such as conversational interfaces and retail media placements, will prevail in the marketplace. 

Beyond operational efficiencies, AI could also reshape the competitive dynamics between the open internet and large closed advertising ecosystems. Green suggested antitrust pressure and regulatory scrutiny may ultimately discourage major technology companies from participating aggressively in open-web ad infrastructure.

Big Tech exodus from open web?

Just look at how Google’s ongoing legal challenges already demonstrate the risks associated with operating across the open internet, he argued. Amazon, whose broader business spans retail and cloud infrastructure, may have even stronger incentives to retreat from the open web advertising supply chain.

“If you look at the economics, most of Amazon’s advertising profits come from sponsored listings within its retail marketplace,” Green said, noting that running a demand-side platform connected to the open web may offer comparatively limited upside relative to risks across its broader business. As a result, Amazon’s role in the open internet advertising ecosystem could diminish over time even as its core retail media business grows. 

“All of their troubles come from the open internet, and none of the money does,” he said on-stage at the March 11 event, adding that Amazon’s demand-side platform risks more profitable parts of its empire, such as AWS and e-commerce. “To put those things at risk, I think, would be a strategic mistake for Amazon. So I believe that their role in the open internet, or their stay in the open internet, will be shorter than Google because of the macro impact,” he added.  

This dynamic feeds into a broader debate about the future structure of the advertising market. Some industry players believe the ecosystem will continue fragmenting between large “walled gardens” — such as Amazon, Google and Meta — and a more open, interoperable infrastructure built around programmatic marketplaces. Others believe the growing complexity of AI-driven advertising may ultimately favor larger platforms with the resources to build integrated systems.

However, what many did agree upon was that the current wave of AI-driven change would mean that the “fake it ’till you make” mantra that served so many so well during the earlier waves of change is unlikely to apply this time around.

Kawaja predicted the next several years will separate companies delivering real AI-driven business outcomes from those merely marketing themselves as AI-native. The result will likely be consolidation across ad tech as weaker players disappear and capital concentrates around platforms able to deliver measurable gains in efficiency and revenue productivity. 

In short, the consensus emerging from Q1’s conference circuit was less about specific predictions and more about the scale of the transition underway.

Numbers to know

Madison & Wall, U.S. Ad Forecast, March 2026 update.

• 29%: Social media spend growth year over year. 
• 24%: Commerce media revenue increased year over year in 4Q25.
• 20%: Connected TV advertising grew year over year in 4Q25.
• 18%: Search advertising revenue rose year over year in 4Q25.

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