Future of TV Briefing: 5 ripple effects that will shape the future of TV in 2026

No one knows how 2026 will play out. But many of the major developments this year are likely to be ripple effects precipitating from events of the past year. Here are five in particular that are most likely to dominate storylines and strategies across the TV, streaming and digital video industry in 2026.

Precipitating event: Netflix’s agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’ streaming and studio business

Netflix’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio business won’t close in 2026. But that’s unlikely to put a hold on M&A activity among major TV and streaming companies. 

The first question becomes what do WBD’s spurned suitors do in response? Paramount and Comcast’s NBCUniversal are unlikely to pair up given the U.S. Federal Communications Commission’s broadcast ownership rules (and the U.S. government’s antagonistic relationship toward Comcast). But there are (much) smaller targets on the market: A+E Global Media, AMC Networks, Lionsgate, Starz, etc.

Then there’s the much bigger question of how does Disney react? And the clarifying question — with Disney CEO Bob Iger slated to step down in 2026 — of who will oversee Disney’s reaction? Or does Disney become an acquisition target because Netflix’s attempt to acquire WBD has jolted its tech counterparts, namely Amazon and Apple, to bolster their respective streaming libraries with owned-and-operated intellectual property (and does Disney’s content licensing deal with OpenAI influence or de-influence that)?

Precipitating event: YouTube’s dominance of the TV screen

In 2025 Youtube cemented its status as the predominant media company on TV as a whole, not just streaming. The Google-owned video platform had already overtaken Netflix as the most-watched streaming service on TV screens in the U.S., and last year it leapfrogged Disney as the most-watched TV network and/or streaming service owner on TV screens in the U.S.

But for as much as YouTube has propelled itself into a class of its own, it began facing new forms of competition in 2025. Netflix and Tubi, for example, inked deals with top YouTube creators to distribute the creators’ YouTube libraries on their respective streamers. They also signed deals with creators for original series, and Netflix started to go after YouTube’s video podcasting preeminence by securing exclusive distribution deals for some shows that also include pulling those shows away from YouTube.

In other words, YouTube’s growth has reached a point of maturation for the creator economy. That intersection is pushing the platform’s TV and streaming competition to take its creators more seriously, and this year that may press YouTube to respond in ways that refortify its position at the center of the creator economy.

Precipitating event: Sports overtakes the upfront, and streamers take on more sports

Last year streaming’s share of advertisers’ annual upfront commitments inched closer to traditional TV’s portion. This year may be the one when the balance finally tips in streaming’s favor.

To be clear, the overall TV ad market already tips in streaming’s favor outside the upfront. But the upfront has continued to orient around TV, if only by virtue of it really centering around live sports. But on that front, the conditions in this year’s upfront are likely to be different than last’s.

This year’s upfront comes a year after ESPN and Fox introduced standalone streaming services as well as after Amazon and Peacock began airing NBA games. Also in this year’s upfront Netflix will have Major League Baseball and the Women’s World Cup on offer. And then there’s the biggest asterisk of all: when it comes to the upfront, to what extent is YouTube taken into account?

I guess the other asterisk is to what extent does the upfront even matter anymore. It does matter, but not to every advertiser, especially those who can’t afford or don’t care for traditional TV inventory. Consider that ad-supported tiers growing and streaming services and connected TV platforms creating more inventory in the form of home-screen ads and increased ad loads. As a result, streaming ad prices are dropping, which will likely induce more demand for streaming inventory — especially as more of that major live sports streaming inventory is made available for sale programmatically outside the confines of an upfront agreement.

Precipitating event: The formation of TikTok U.S.

On the other end of the industry spectrum is the short-form video market, and at the center of that market for years has been TikTok. But this year there will be TikTok and then TikTok U.S.

Sure, legacy TikTok (i.e. ByteDance) will reportedly still be responsible for ad sales, but TikTok U.S. will effectively be a separate app — and potentially a new user experience. The look of TikTok U.S. may mirror its legacy version, but the feel will come down to its U.S. operators’ ability to replicate its content recommendation algorithm, as well as to people’s willingness to continue to use the app under its new owners.

Another factor will be moves made by TikTok’s primary rivals. We’ve spent enough space talking about YouTube, but there remains the major fact that last year YouTube said Shorts generated more revenue per watch time than long-form videos, meaning YouTube has every incentive to ramp up its TikTok rival in 2026. 

And then there’s Instagram Reels. The Meta-owned platform’s CTV app may end up in the dustbin alongside IGTV, but it’s hard to ignore Reels’ $50 billion annual revenue run rate, especially if Instagram (and Facebook) start sharing that ad revenue with creators and publishers.

Precipitating event: The rise of high-quality AI video slop

The impact of AI-generated content on short-form video platforms is too big to squeeze into the previous section. Plus it’s not limited to short-form video platforms, nor is it simply a question of slop.

Last year saw AI-generated video passing the “Will Smith eating spaghetti” test and receiving its own dedicated video platforms in the form of OpenAI’s Sora and Meta’s Vibes. AI-generated video can’t be confined to its own feeds, though. A sizable share of YouTube Shorts’s feeds are already being populated with AI-generated videos, as noted below in “Numbers to know.” And an increasing number of brands from Coca-Cola to Equinox are rolling out AI-generated ads. 

TikTok and Pinterest have introduced options to limit AI-generated content in feeds, but neither platform makes any promises about being able to entirely wipe AI-generated content from those feeds. Instagram’s Adam Mosseri seemed to acknowledge as much by saying in a recent Instagram post that “it will be more practical to fingerprint real media than fake media.”

And that’s at a time when the line between real and fake media is becoming even blurrier in light of Disney’s OpenAI deal and the likelihood of more major IP owners following suit. Meanwhile, Disney is looking to incorporate AI-generated video into Disney+, and the most popular streamer on Twitch is powered by AI.

For as pervasive as AI-generated video has become, so too has been the pushback against it. But there’s no pushing back the clock to a time before generative AI. While Netflix-WBD may further signal TV and streaming cycling back to the bundle, AI slop portends a new era altogether. That all this is happening at the same time only makes the outlook fuzzier. Now to see how it all comes into focus throughout the year.

What we’ve heard

“If the user experience holds steady, we expect spend to fluctuate only as media buyers pause to recalibrate their data.”

— Good Apple’s Kira Henson on advertisers likelihood to spend on TikTok U.S.

Numbers to know

30%: Estimated percentage share of Netflix’s subscriber base that is the ad-supported tier.

700 million: Number of hours that YouTube viewers, cumulatively, spent streaming podcasts through the platform’s CTV app in October.

21%: Percentage share of 500 YouTube Shorts in a sampled feed that were AI-generated videos.

26.5 million: Number of U.K. streaming subscribers who are on ad-supported tiers, versus 23.1 million who on ad-free tiers.

18%: Percentage increase in the number of layoffs for employees in the entertainment and media industry in 2025.

What we’ve covered

Omnicom Media says Walmart purchase insights help it make better use of Meta’s influencer followers:

• Omnicom will use Walmart’s shopper data to pick Instagram creators for brand deals.
• The agency will be able to see what types of products a creator’s audience are predisposed to purchasing.

Read more about Omnicom’s influencer marketing plan here.

Why publishers are building their own creator networks:

• Publishers keep trying to figure out how to lean on creators to make up for lost referral traffic.
• CNN, Yahoo and The Washington Post are among the latest to hop on the trend.

Read more about publishers’ creator networks here.

Virality is no longer just a vibe at MrBeast’s Beast Industries:

• YouTube’s top creator is looking to hire a head of viral marketing.
• The role’s remit will span MrBeast’s product lines that include snacks, fintech, telecom and retail.

Read more about MrBeast here.

Marketers brace for TikTok whiplash in 2026:

• TikTok has become a fixture in advertisers’ budgets.
• Those dollars staying place comes down to TikTok U.S. retaining users.

Read more about TikTok here.

TikTok Shop offers incentives to new sellers, as U.S. uncertainty is finally over:

• Ahead of the holidays, TikTok offered no joining fees to new sellers on TikTok Shop.
• It also dangled $6,000 worth of coupons for sellers.

Read more about TikTok Shop here.

Why Pinterest wants to buy tvScientific, and what it signals for the CTV ads business:

• Pinterest will use tvScientific to apply its user data to CTV ads.
• The acquisition would allow Pinterest advertisers to extend their campaigns across tvScientific’s network of CTV inventory.

Read more about Pinterest here.

What we’re reading

Google’s AI-powered CTV platform:

Google is adding its Nano Banana AI image generation and Veo AI video generation technologies to its Google TV platform so that people will be able to create and watch AI-generated videos on their TV screens, according to The Verge.

Instagram’s CTV play:

Instagram is hoping people will want to stream short-form, vertical videos on their horizontal TV screens through its new CTV app, according to Bloomberg.

YouTube’s podcast advertising impact:

More and more people are tuning into podcasts through YouTube, but host-read podcast ads on YouTube aren’t as likely to lead to product purchases as host-read podcast ads in audio-only podcast platforms, according to The Wall Street Journal.

CTV’s privacy problem:

Texas attorney general Ken Paxton has sued major smart TV makers, including LG and Samsung, for not properly notifying people about their devices’ automated content recognition capabilities, according to Courthouse News.