How a precise timing structure drives material differences in marketing efficiency

Using a data-backed approach can take the guesswork out of flighting ad campaigns — an advertising scheduling strategy that alternates periods of high-intensity ad activity (or flights) with periods of no activity — as it helps determine what is actually driving impact. In fact, industry leaders have found that finding the right so-called flighting mix can result in better ROI, with returns on some channels leading to an increase of up to 81%.

Flighted vs. optimized timing

Most marketers today are still using ROAS or ROI to determine impact. While ROI measures the total return on marketing spending across all investment levels, marginal return on investment (mROI) specifically focuses on the incremental return generated from additional spending, offering a more nuanced view of marketing efficiency at different spending thresholds. ROI tells marketers how effective their marketing dollars are overall, while mROI reveals what they’ll get back from the next dollar spent.

Using insights from an analysis of more than 400 brands and more than $42 billion of historical marketing investment across a diverse set of verticals, Keen Decision Systems looked at two timing models: flighted mROI and optimized mROI.

Flighted mROI reflects the mROI observed in historical measurement, based on the way spend actually occurred over the last 52 weeks. It answers a specific question: When spend increased during the real campaign flights that ran, what was the return on the next incremental dollar? Because it is grounded in observed flighting patterns, it captures performance under real-world conditions — including periods when brands concentrate investment, such as holidays or tentpole moments — making it especially useful for identifying where returns are still strong versus where spend may already be past the point of diminishing returns.

In many cases, brands are correctly leaning into key moments, but incremental spend doesn’t remain equally productive as budgets scale. Flighted mROI reveals whether additional dollars continued to drive efficient growth or delivered smaller returns as saturation set in.

Optimized mROI assumes the same total spend but removes the constraint of existing timing. It redistributes that budget into the weeks where the model identifies the highest marginal ROI. This does not imply always-on or even smoothing by default — only that the allocation has been reshaped to reflect opportunity, not habit.

Put simply, flighted mROI is campaign-anchored investment, where budget is concentrated into a few key seasonal or promotional moments, while optimized mROI is where the same dollars are reallocated across the year to better match expected performance over time.

A deeper analysis

Digging deeper into each channel, it’s clear that timing structure drives material differences in efficiency. Linear TV had the biggest improvement when shifting investments, rising from about $1.26 to $6.64. This suggests that traditional campaign-based media are leaving significant value on the table, and re-weighting spend across more weeks can dramatically increase profit. Display was another success story, seeing ROI grow from just under $1 to more than $3.50 in optimized scenarios, reflecting its flexibility and potential to perform better when not confined to only promotional windows.

Other channels saw more modest gains. Retail media and search had smaller mROI gains, indicating that their current timing is closer to efficient already, or that they are structurally tied to specific periods like retailer promotions, limiting how much reallocation is possible. Additionally, CTV and online video improve modestly, but meaningfully, suggesting that even digital video, which is often planned in bursts, can benefit from broader timing distribution.

Overall, channels with longer consumer consideration cycles — TV, video, display — show the greatest returns from optimization. This reinforces the idea that brand-building channels benefit from sustained presence and should not be overly compressed into short flights.

Implications for 2026 planning

As marketers continue building their 2026 plans, timing structure should be a strategic lever in their planning process. To begin, brands should audit their current execution calendar and ask whether current spend levels in peak weeks still align with marginal return. They might find it is more efficient to maintain a presence during underfunded, less competitive periods.

Next, brands should prioritize shoulder periods. The most consistent modeling outcome Keen Decision Systems has seen across tactics is that shifting some investment into the weeks immediately before and after the peak can significantly improve ROI. These shoulder weeks are often underutilized, but show higher returns due to lower saturation, earlier influence on consideration, and sustained purchase intent.

Similarly, marketers should avoid overloading peak weeks. Marginal ROI curves typically flatten or decline during high-volume campaign weeks. Spending more in these windows often delivers diminishing returns and may be driven more by tradition than performance, so brands should adjust accordingly.

This also means that brands should rebalance across the season. Instead of front-loading or back-loading campaigns, marketers should spread investment intelligently to create a longer period of relevance. This is particularly important for media channels with strong memory effects, like linear or connected television, where earlier presence can shape demand and extend response.

Additionally, brands should consider shorter flights where structurally necessary. Tactics such as retail media, search and consumer promotions might still benefit from tightly timed bursts, especially when aligned with retail events. However, it’s important that they be scoped to clear performance windows, not defaulted across the board to fully maximize the opportunity.

Finally, marketers need to account for media booking realities. Channels like linear TV may still require upfront commitments, so optimization doesn’t mean shifting quarterlies entirely. Instead, this means reallocating within existing timeframes based on expected return curves.

By adopting a more optimized flighting approach, marketers can deliver more mROI on their investments. With marketers’ dollars needing to work harder than ever due to economic uncertainty, this strategy ensures that they’re not wasting any of their spending.

Partner insights from Keen Decision Systems