Media Briefing: Publishers’ Q4 programmatic ad businesses are in limbo

It’s a rare kind of uncertainty for them. By now, they’d usually have a solid grasp on how programmatic ad spending is going to play out this quarter. But with the ad market in flux, they’ll likely be left in limbo until the end of the month.

Blame it on a perfect storm of events — from the U.S. presidential race with all its ripple effects, to a chaotic news cycle. Add in summer sports pulling ad dollars forward, and publishers on both sides of the Atlantic are left grappling with uncertainty.

Wherever they are, the story is the same: strong ad spending over the summer, followed by a dip as the season turned, with publishers either expecting or — dare they say — hoping for a rally as the holiday rush picks up. In fact, the uncertainty is so palpable that few would go on the record with their forecasts. Those who did are the exceptions — mainly the ones whose businesses are thriving against the odds. For the rest, the holiday season feels less like a sure thing and more like a roll of the dice.

As the head of programmatic at a gaming publisher in North America told Digiday: “From an open programmatic market perspective, Q3 was the strongest performance we’ve seen. August and September were particularly strong. With that in mind, October opened slower than we anticipated, especially in an election year. However, performance has picked up since Amazon’s Prime Day and the second half of October was solid.”

It’s a similar story for a publisher elsewhere in the region, where ad spending in open auctions is also sliding — especially on Google’s ad exchange, which accounts for 60% of the revenue generated from these auctions. So far this quarter, it’s down double digits compared to the previous one.

But things could have been worse if not for two factors: a rise in ad dollars from auctions in other ad exchanges and direct deals with advertisers and agencies. Both — but especially the latter — have helped cushion the blow from Google’s auction slump. In fact, ad spending from those direct deals is up double digits, according to the publisher’s head of programmatic.

“Everything that’s direct in terms of programmatic — so preferred, guaranteed and private marketplace deals — has seen a strong uptick this year, but especially this quarter,” the head of programmatic continued. “Indirect, or RTB, is down but that’s primarily down to Google’s exchange, not others. In fact, they’re performing better than last year.”

Why? It looks like SSPs are getting creative, brokering deals directly with agencies on the back of ad inventory they’ve curated for their clients to target. This shift is steering ad dollars away from Google and into the hands of competing programmatic marketplaces.

“Our outlook is positive as it stands because we’re seeing that more advertisers want to spend more money directly with us when it comes to programmatic advertising,” said the head of programmatic.

For some, the outlook is even brighter. Marla Newman, evp of sales at Raptive, which helps sell digital ads for 5,000 independent creators’ sites, shared that its direct business is up 100% year over year. That’s driven primarily by programmatic guaranteed deals, which were up “significantly,” and private market deals, which “slightly” rose by one or two percentage points, Newman continued.

“We’re seeing a strong appetite for programmatic deals as part of bigger demand for our direct business, and we expect that to persist further into the quarter,” she added.

Yet, for publishers heavily dependent on open auctions, where ad prices are set in real time, the outlook is far less rosy. As one revenue lead admitted: “My business is all from the open auction and as it stands it’s too hard to say how this quarter is going to shake out.”

The mixed signals are telling. On one hand, auctions are attracting a broader range of advertisers now that political campaigns have stepped back post-election. On the other hand, the absence of those political advertisers is deflating auction prices, which were buoyed by intense bidding wars earlier in the quarter. Even cautious optimism feels precarious. As the revenue lead put it: “We’ll know whether Q4 is going to be a total dud or not by the end of November.”

This sense of unease was echoed at Digiday’s Publisher Summit Europe last month, where executives raised concerns over how much programmatic spending would rebound in the year’s final stretch.

One executive summed up the mood during a session held under Chatham House rules, which frees all participants to speak anonymously: “Our direct business is holding up well in terms of deal volume and yield. I can’t say the same for our RTB business, which has definitely dipped compared to the previous quarter.”

This uncertainty reflects more than just short-term fluctuations — it highlights the growing divide in the open web. On one side, publishers are leveraging their first-party data and consent to attract high-quality advertising. On the other, a fragmented long tail of poorly targeted sites continues to struggle with malvertising and fraud. As this bifurcation deepens, it’s clear that the holiday ad market will reward publishers more on one side of the divide while leaving those on the other side to grapple with its consequences. 

And there’s evidence to suggest there’s still plenty of money on the table. 

eMarketer is preparing to update its programmatic forecast for the year. In June it projected programmatic digital display ad spending to grow 15.2% in the U.S. and 15.6 globally year-on-year in 2024. Those figures are expected to be even higher int he upcoming revision, a sign that while challenges persist, opportunity abounds for those positioned to seize it. — Seb Joseph

What we’ve heard

“We saw a lot of hesitation around the election, and that resulted in general a lack of partnerships, lack of spend. … To be honest, most of what we’re working on now is looking forward to 2025. … It was not what we expected. … It was a very robust Q3 and we weren’t planning for as significant a drop in Q4 as we saw.”

— An anonymous digital media publishing exec on Q4 ad revenue

Numbers to know

$16 million: The minimum annual amount Dotdash Meredith is getting paid by AI company OpenAI.

8%: Percentage of staff the Associated Press is laying off.

40%: Percentage of U.S. adults that get their news from influencers.

$130 million: The value of startup AI company ProRata.ai after signing licensing deals with The Guardian, Sky News and Daily Mail’s owner.

What we’ve covered

Digiday editors discuss Trump administration picks and the impact on the ad industry

• Digiday editors and reporters discuss the incoming administration’s ripple effects on publishing, marketing and media — and the effect Trump’s cabinet picks could have on these industries.
• Some publishers used Trump’s win as an opportunity to market their subscriptions, while brands wait to see if the next administration will be more lax on corporate regulations.

Listen to the latest Digiday Podcast episode here.

What we’re reading

Comcast to spin off NBCUniversal TV networks:

Comcast will spin off some of its entertainment and news channels — including MSNBC and CNBC — which brought in $7 billion in revenue in the past year, The Wall Street Journal reported. Reality TV network Bravo, streaming service Peacock and broadcast network NBC will remain under Comcast.

Can Jeff Bezos fix The Washington Post?:

The Washington Post is reportedly on track to lose at least $77 million this year, but Jeff Bezos seems determined to right the ship, Intelligencer reported. Post staffers have mixed feelings about where the publication is headed as well as the names being thrown around for the next leader of the newsroom.

Infowars founder Alex Jones sues The Onion over sale:

Jones is suing satire site The Onion over its bid to buy his right-wing conspiracy website in a bankruptcy auction, claiming The Onion aims to misuse his intellectual property, The Wall Street Journal reported. The judge overseeing the bankruptcy has paused the sale to review the auction process.

News publishers are flocking to Bluesky:

Looking for an alternative to X, a number of news publishers (and journalists) have joined Bluesky since the U.S. presidential election, according to a Press Gazette report.

Apple News has started selling its own ad inventory:

Apple has started selling its own inventory within the Apple News feed and stories, Axios reported. Publishers will get a 70% cut of the ad revenue sold by Apple within their articles.