Media Buying Briefing: What buyers expect out of this year’s upfront marketplace

With upfront season officially kicked off and in gear, outcomes are a major goal of the deals that will get struck over the coming weeks and possibly months. (According to five investment executives and consultants reached for this story, no actual upfront deals have been struck yet, at press time.) Outcomes-based deals move the broader video landscape from buying audiences generally to finding ways to prove that the advertising purchased had an affect on the consumers reached. 

“Premium content is being redefined around outcomes, not just scale,” said Jessie Schwartzfarb, evp and head of video investment at Dentsu. “Premium IP is going to continue to remain central, but making those high attention environments more measurable and optimizable is a key message that we saw … Premium media must now deliver cultural impact, but it also has to deliver business results. You can’t just be one or the other.”

Standing in the way of the successful execution of outcomes deals, primarily, is the lack of cohesive measurement tools to prove those outcomes. AI and all the talk of agentic abilities that are currently getting layered into the buying and selling of billions of dollars of ad time, will offer some assistance in reaching those conclusions.

“The entirety of the industry is focused on how to better measure outcomes, and how can they get better with measurement, not just in video but across the board, and I think that’s not settled,” said Cyd Falkson, svp of strategic accounts at media consultants Mediasense. “There continues to be a strong desire for accountability and transparency. When platforms are selling guarantees based on outcomes and more sophisticated data-driven targeting, there’s a lot of sparkle on it. But there are also a lot of questions around what really is the data, what control do I have as an advertiser in terms of where there is flexibility, and where I show up.”

Jeff Greenspoon, CEO of Kantar, sees the measurement conundrum as both blessing and curse in this upfront. “The curse is that we are still talking measurement like we have been for 8, 10, 12 years,” said Greenspoon. “The blessing of it is it’s getting to the point where we have enough connected data systems across platforms and channels that we can help advertisers make those decisions.”

Flexibility is another key conversation that’s going to be had across the upfront spectrum. Marketers need it and agencies are demanding it. Because despite more than one media buyer saying this year’s upfront presentations by NBCU, Fox, Amazon, Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, YouTube and others felt like the first “normal” upfront since the pandemic, what’s not normal is a more-than uncertain economic climate that has agencies asking for more flexibility than ever before. 

That reality is affecting budgets as they get finalized by clients and handed to the investment execs charged with spending it. 

“My budgets are all down, except for sports, and my sports budgets are not up like they [sellers with sports inventory to sell] think they’re up,” said one holding company investment exec, who noted that their sports budget is up a modest 3-4% and down in linear (i.e. cable) as much as 30% versus last year’s upfront.

“A lot of that is the media landscape has changed, but a lot of that is our clients’ businesses are under unbelievable pressure,” added the exec. “There’s the uncertainty of where tariffs will go, where the war will go, where the fuel prices will go. That is all making everybody more nervous about releasing funds at this time.”

What remains unanswered — and won’t be till deals get negotiated — is how much those budgets are down because a certain amount of dollars will get put aside to be transacted via principal media deals, which all the holding company shops continue to pursue. Stay tuned for more clarity on that in coming weeks.

Ad categories that at this early point appear willing to up their upfront spending include pharmaceutical, finance, tech while retailers, QSR, travel, film studios and some CPG categories are more hesitant. One investment exec said even autos are volatile, as tariffs wield a negative effect on their costs, but ironically high gas prices may help them move some of the EVs that lost some appeal when tax breaks around their purchase were done away with by the U.S. government.  

Meantime, legacy media sellers continue to push the value of live events and sports content to the front of the pipeline, seeking premium value in the market, but also leaning on that content to help promote the rest of their slates in hopes of a bit of halo effect. “Definitely sports is an area that everyone wants to be close to,” said Schwartzfarb. 

As they feel more and more competitive heat from Amazon and YouTube — where execs touted their growing sports portfolios, legacy media also pushed their streaming and CTV offshoots, often giving the content being created for them top billing. Similarly, buyers focused on that content to invest in over linear, which appears to be dying a slow death when sports isn’t part of the equation. (To wit, the above buyer’s comment that cable budgets are down 30% from 2025.)

But when it comes to content, what’s also clear is the looming worry of brand safety in a world where marketer dollars are no longer easily won and just as easily scared away by risk-taking. A majority of content announced at upfronts last week stayed close to existing IP franchises (be it a Fast & Furious TV offshoot to more Marvel and Star Wars content). 

One final small quibble that buyers had with the upfront presentations from a content POV was a lack of explanation on where and when programming would run. “The takeaway that I’d love to get coming out of each network upfront of, is, these shows look really interesting — they might even be a contextual fit for this or that client,” said Alicia Weaver, vp of media activation at media agency Mediassociates. “But when will it be out? Where can I be able to activate within it? That part is a little a bit of a struggle.”

So will determining outcomes. But that’s why OpenAP announced last week it signed up pretty much every traditional media company to a partnership that aims to introduce a single, standardized way to connect exposure to TV commercials with business results.

Color by numbers

With all the talk of outcomes, it’s worth looking at what some of the research says about its ability to connect ads to consumer activity. Disqo released its 2026 Outcomes Report on TV advertising, surveying just under 2,700 adults, and found a lingering gap between what planners expect and what consumers actually act upon. Some stats: 

• 53% of consumers have taken action on a different device after seeing a TV ad., while another 13% are unsure if they have;. 
• 57% of those post-TV actions happen on mobile;
• 63% of those actions happen the same day the ad runs, with 39% acting immediately or within minutes;
• 26% of viewers actively search for something related to what they are watching while the ad is still running;
• 80% of consumers who take action after a TV ad do so within the same day.

Takeoff & landing

• Dentsu’s first quarter 2026 earnings showed modest revenue growth of 2.7% with organic growth a more tepid 0.8%, and operating margins at the lower end of the holding company average, at 12.8%. While all other regions for the Japan-based holdco registered some amount of growth, the Americas region was down 3%. 
• Tinuiti launched a YouTube Intelligence Suite in its own tech platform, Bliss Point that aims to connect YouTube impressions directly to business outcomes. 
• Account moves: Kepler landed AOR duties for Terminix’s upper- and mid-funnel media work, following a competitive review … Novus won media AOR work for plant-based food firm Ripple Foods for full-funnel strategy and activation. 
• Personnel moves: Publicis named Fran Pessagno to be CEO of Publicis Media Canada, moving over from Spark Foundry where he was president and Groupe client lead … PHD China promoted Cynthia Zhang from COO to CEO, while WPP Media Malaysia named Winnie Chen-Head its CEO … Stagwell hired Dru Sil to be global product managing director of Stagwell Media Platform, coming over from Omnicom Media, where he was global commerce product lead at Annalect … MissionOne Media hired Michael Piner to be evp and head of investments and partnerships, coming over from Omnicom’s PHD, while Kelly McGowan will be evp of media planning, coming over from IPG’s Mediahub … Agency network BCG Worldwide hired Jayelle Dorsainville to be svp, head of social strategy & influence, coming over from WPP/OpenX where she was global social strategy lead for Coca Cola.

Direct quote

“You still want to garner reach, but being relevant to the right reach is the most important thing for brands. You can gamify any system to go after tonnage for a lower cost. It doesn’t mean you’re standing out.”

—Vinny Rinaldi, vp of consumer connections at Hershey, in a Q&A with Sam Bradley.

Speed reading

• Alyssa Mercante explained how Amazon wants to turn creator-led video podcasts into the next generation of TV networks — multi-platform franchises that can soak up TV budgets and spin out into retail, live events and social clips. 
• Sam Bradley also covered how Amazon is now a fully-fledged member of the upfronts set, capable of going toe-to-toe with the likes of CBS, NBC, Fox or Disney with an entire portfolio of live sports rights.
• Kimeko McCoy, who attended Digiday’s recent Programmatic Marketing Summit, wrote about how in reality, marketers aren’t ready to give up control to AI agents, establishing guardrails to keep them in check.