Ad Tech Briefing: The Trade Desk’s S&P 500 debut over AppLovin’s highlights lingering issues around maturity

It often leads to increased demand for shares, as many index funds and ETFs are required to buy stocks in the index. This heightened demand can drive up a company’s stock price and reduce volatility, offering both prestige and practical financial benefits.

For example, The Trade Desk saw its stock price rise by double-digits on the back of the news, with its market capitalization surpassing $41 billion the day before its July 18 admission to the S&P 500. It’s also in stark contrast to the precipitous stock price plunge following the demand-side platform’s first quarterly decline in revenues after 33 straight periods of meeting, if not surpassing, analysts’ expectations.

However, ad tech observers can rightly ask why The Trade Desk was inducted into the S&P 500 ahead of its ad tech contemporary AppLovin, which had a market capitalization of approximately $124 billion during the same week.

Officially, the answer to such queries is that inclusion in the S&P 500 is based on more than just market capitalization. 

While size is a key factor, the index also considers profitability, liquidity, public float, sector representation, and U.S. incorporation. The Trade Desk, despite its smaller market cap compared to AppLovin, evidently met the complete set of eligibility criteria, including consistent profitability and a sufficient percentage of publicly traded shares.

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AppLovin, although larger in value, may not have met such requirements, like a history of positive earnings over recent quarters or having a sufficiently broad investor base. Additionally, the S&P 500 aims for balanced sector representation. Suppose the index committee determines that a company better aligns with its goals for diversification and stability. In that case, it may be selected over a larger peer that has been deemed to have fallen short of its selection criteria by the powers that be.

As highlighted by Investor’s Business Daily, the selection committee for the S&P 500 Index also passed household names, such as Robinhood, in favor of The Trade Desk, but it also asks questions of the wider sector. However, for some, it will also raise questions as to whether transparency in ad tech had anything to do with it.

After all, in the last year, AppLovin faced multiple aggressive short-seller attacks from Fuzzy Panda, Culper Research, and Muddy Waters. They accused the company of overstating its AI capabilities, misappropriating user data, violating app store policies, and employing deceptive ad-install tactics, all to inflate metrics. These claims triggered significant declines in stock prices during the same period, with some instances reaching as high as 23%. 

Such claims led AppLovin to be hit with a class-action securities lawsuit alleging fraud and misleading disclosures about its AI platform, AXON, and data practices. The company responded by retaining Quinn Emanuel to investigate and vigorously defend its business, while analysts debated the impact of these controversies.

Similar circumstances befell fellow publicly-traded ad tech firm Zeta Global in the last 12 months, and it’s also worth noting that  AppLovin’s stock price has since started to move up and to the right.

However, historians of the sector will note how Rocket Fuel’s drawn-out exit from the highs of its float on the public markets (arguably) began with similar finger-pointing.  So while the first ad tech firm to land on the S&P 500 is truly a moment to remember, and a collective pat on the back, it’s also worthy of some a moment for reflection that the sector as a whole needs to be wary of misdeeds.

Numbers to know

• 11%: The number of respondents planning to decrease their retail media spend in H2, according to MediaOcean’s latest report. 
• 47%: The number of respondents using generative AI for data analysis, per the ad tech firm’s survey findings.
• 45%: The number of executives citing “conversions” as the most critical metric when evaluating CTV/live sports buys. 
• 52%: The number of executives citing fragmented measurement as the critical challenge to measuring reach and frequency.

What we’ve covered:

Streaming is reaching 50% of all upfront dollars

Streaming is set to dominate the 2025 upfronts, with up to 50% of commitments shifting from linear TV. Buyers are consolidating DSP partners — favoring Amazon, Google, or The Trade Desk — making programmatic a “buyer’s market.” Yet transparency remains a sticking point, with unclear CPMs and ROI metrics. Advertisers demand better data to justify higher costs, but many still face challenges in proving CTV’s value and navigating complex pricing structures. The transition is real but gradual, with trust and clarity lagging behind spend.

CMOs might be pushing ahead on AI, but lack of measurement’s holding them back

Generative AI is widely adopted in marketing, but clear ROI remains elusive. Marketers track time saved and efficiency gains, yet standardized metrics are lacking. While some report cost savings and productivity boosts, many remain cautious. Without clear benchmarks, full-scale adoption and agency replacement are limited — AI’s value still depends on evolving tools and expectations.

What we’ve heard

“Amazon DSP is a very different competitor than Google…  if the Amazon DSP tech eventually matches their aggression, Amazon and The Trade Desk will be a real match.”

— Daniel Salmon, an equities analyst specializing in ad tech at NewStreet Research, reflects on recent meetings charting the rise of Amazon’s demand-side platform, and how it is leveraging wider Amazon capabilities, such as free clean room services from AWS, as part of the ongoing DSP wars.   

What we’re reading

Accenture and WPP have discussed potential M&A deal

Campaign’s Gideon Spanier and Bärbel Egli-Unckrich report that senior executives from both Accenture and WPP have held multiple meetings discussing a potential union through corporate development. Representatives of both sides declined to comment, but this comes as incoming CEO Cidy Rose prepares to take the reins at the holding company, with Digiday sources not ruling out the prospect of a potential WPP breakup.   

Agentic ad tech firm Clinch scraps CPMs for monthly subscription pricing  

Adweek’s Trishla Ostwal reveals how Clinch is opting for a flat monthly pricing model — Unlimited Ad Serving — for advertisers, replacing impression-based CPM fees. This SaaS approach offers unlimited cross-channel ad serving, appealing to major brands like Coca-Cola and Hyundai seeking cost predictability. Clinch claims clients save 30–50% versus CPM pricing. Its AI-powered platform automates creative and performance optimization, challenging traditional adtech monetization and attracting 10 new Fortune 500 clients in 2025.

OpenX’s curation tool improves buy-side control – but it doesn’t want to replace DSPs

AdExchanger reports how OpenX has launched OpenXSelect, a curated supply platform aimed at giving advertisers greater transparency and control. Though still firmly identifying as a sell-side platform, OpenX is leaning into buy-side needs by enabling precise audience and contextual targeting. Powered by its AI suite, Results by OpenX, the platform helps brands navigate concerns over supply quality and ad placement, while delivering tailored deal IDs for efficient, outcome-focused media buying.

Marketing budgets bounce back: IPA Bellwether Q2 2025

ExchangeWire examines attitudes towards IPA figures, suggesting that U.K. marketing budgets rebounded in Q2 2025, rising at the fastest rate in a year, per the trade org’s latest Bellwether Report. A net 5.5% of firms increased spend, driven by digital, direct marketing, and sales promotions. Despite economic headwinds, tactical investments returned. Market research and “other” categories were the only areas to see budget cuts.