Retail media was built for growth. Now, it’s being rebuilt for risk

No one has a firm answer yet. If anything, the sudden backtracking on the more aggressive tariffs only underscores the futility of trying to make marketing decisions in real time when the policy backdrop can change by the hour. The prevailing logic now looks like this: Wait as long as possible, and be ready to move the moment it counts.

“We have a client who isn’t having supply chain issues at the moment but one of their competitors is, so we’re actively shifting their media posture more towards conquesting to see if we can pull in some of those customers,” said Mark Barker, co-founder and strategy lead at Craft & Commerce.

Pulling off that kind of pivot is challenging at the best of times. It’s even harder when dollars are tied up in rigid trading agreements. One day tariffs are back on the table, the next they’re on pause — that level of volatility leaves little room for marketers to move unless their media plans are built for speed.

And it’s not just tariffs triggering this rethink. Marketers are also tracking the fate of digital services taxes (DST) in the U.K. and across the European Union — levies that disproportionately hit ad investments on platforms like Amazon, Google and Meta, said Ethan Kitching, co-founder and chief commercial officer of Base Commerce. If DSTs are rolled back in trade negotiations, it could trigger a shift toward brand-heavy brand building buying on platforms like Prime Video, he continued.

Either way, the pressure is building for retail media plans to stay fluid.

“The current environment is accelerating the balance of power in those commercial deals toward CPG advertisers,” said Barker.

Granted, marketers have been calling for this kind of flexibility since the pandemic — some even earlier. What’s different now is the weight retail media carries. It’s no longer a line item for experimentation — it’s central to how companies go to market. And now, in a moment of economic whiplash, retail media is one of the systems they’re leaning on hardest — not just to survive but to seize the opportunity wherever it appears.

“We’re still seeing brands push for more flexibility in their retail media commitments, especially with tariffs and broader economic uncertainty in the mix,” Julie Sechrist, director of brand strategy at Tandemtide, said in an emailed response. “JBPs [Joint Business Plans] are getting a closer look — many of our clients are leaning into more performance-driven, adaptive partnerships that give them room to pivot when the landscape shifts.”

On the ground, that evolving mindset looks like fewer long-term deals, and more short-cycle buying. Budgets are being broken into smaller tranches, and are being released in waves based on real-time sales, supply chain visibility and even tariff headlines. Some advertisers are rewiring their trading deals, entirely replacing rigid commitment with placements that can be dialed up and down at a moment’s notice. Others are tying media spending directly to inventory data, ensuring that if products are delayed — or priced out of reach — the ad dollars don’t follow.

“Retail media has been headed toward this point for a while and what we’re seeing over the last week is the latest example of how the marketplace is having to change when something unexpected happens,” said Erich Parker, svp of integrated media at shopper marketing agency Blue Chip.

These tactics are quickly becoming the foundation of marketer-retailer negotiation. It’s still early days, to be clear, but they’re already moving beyond where money is going to focus on how quickly it can move. And for that kind of agility, precision is key. Marketers will need to know not just what’s moving, but also what’s profitable. That level of granularity will separate those who can move with the moment from those who get left behind.

“Brands are focused on production and supply chain considerations right now,” said Dan Eisenberg, CMO at Blue Chip. “No one can answer the marketing and media implications yet.”

But what they do know is that top-line performance alone isn’t enough anymore. The pressure now is to isolate impact — to find the signal in the noise and connect ad dollars to actual business outcomes. That rigor sharpens when uncertainty sets in. When budgets tighten, marketers don’t just pause, they interrogate. Which is why incrementality has gone from a nice-to-have to a must-prove.

“Measuring the impact of retail media on each retailer and against their total business is an industry-wide challenge right now that all brands are trying to solve,” Digitas’ head of retail media Christa Klausner said in an email. “Clients are leaning on their agency partners, like Digitas, to standardize and normalize their measurement metrics to truly understand what is driving incremental sales.”

And inevitably, this will concentrate spending. Dollars will consolidate into fewer, but more proven, retail media platforms — the ones marketers trust to deliver when it matters most. Not only reach but return. Not just presence but precision.

“There’s going to be desire for many businesses to go further down the funnel and focus on ROAS but that can be manipulated relatively easily, whether its cutting ad spend or remarketing to people who’ve already looked at their stuff,” said Patrick Petriello, director of retail marketplace strategy at Acadia. “Really, all they’ve actually done is shrunk the brand because they haven’t actually reached a single new shopper.”

In a market that changes overnight, incrementality may be one of the few metrics that still matters.

“Ultimately, brands are prioritizing marketplaces that are delivering growth. If they see traction with emerging platforms, they’ll invest more,” said Julie Spear, partner and head of retail marketplace services at Acadia. “But if growth stalls, they’re quick to reallocate budgets to proven players like Amazon and Walmart. It’s a performance-driven approach, with growing attention on where retail media can extend beyond the platform.”