As Google’s antitrust trial intensifies, the ad industry speculates the consequences of a potential breakup

That hasn’t stopped the ad industry from speculating about what’s to come.

“They [Google] have been the prosecuting attorney, the defense attorney, and the judge and the jury of the online ad ecosystem,” said The Trade Desk’s CEO Jeff Green at Exchangewire’s ATS conference in London last week. “The remedy is to say you have to quit at least one of those jobs: You can’t be all three.”

And that’s exactly what’s at stake. Even if Google walks away with its empire mostly intact, the days of playing all sides of the ad game are numbered. Regulators are circling, and the ad industry’s power players are sharpening their knives. This trial is turning Google’s playbook into a public record—and lawmakers are paying close attention. Internal emails reveal the company’s thinly veiled disdain for the ad industry, while recorded meetings with publishers show Google flexing its dominance like its business as usual. The real question isn’t whether Google will stumble, but how hard and how fast.

Unsurprisingly, ad execs have plenty to say on the matter.

Ruben Schreurs, chief strategy officer at Ebiquity, reckons Google might spin off the sell-side of its ad tech business (Google Ad Manager and Adsense), either after a verdict or through a settlement with the DOJ — anything to stop “this car crash of a trial.”

Matt Wasserlauf, CEO of Blockboard, shares a similar take, surmising Google’s ad server could be the first to go, as it controls where the revenue flows in its ad business.

Forrester’s senior analyst Mo Allibhai added Google’s supply-side platform to the list. 

Bottom line: everyone’s got a theory, but no one has a crystal ball. Whether it’s the sell-side, the ad server, or the entire supply-side platform that hits the chopping block, it’s all just educated guesswork at this point. And chances are it will stay this way for a while — especially with the looming debate over how to handle the fallout if Google is found guilty of monopolizing online advertising, and the likely appeal that’ll follow.

Let’s say Google spins off its demand-side platform (DSP) business. That could force it to open up YouTube’s ad inventory to other DSPs, creating a wave of competition. But would that even be possible, given that the DSP is also used to buy Google’s search ads? Those might be out of scope for the antitrust remedies, which focus on online display advertising.

Then again, maybe Schreurs and Wasserlauf are right, and it’s the sell-side that’s on the chopping block. If that happens, it’s unclear who stands to benefit more — Google or the industry. In fact, it could be Google. Think about it: an independent Google Ad Manager means no Google-owned DSP, as it would focus on buying ads for YouTube and search. Everything outside that, on the open web, could be left behind.

And therein lies the rub. 

Whether it’s the DSP, the sell-side or something else entirely that gets the ax, the outcome is far from clear-cut. Sure, forcing Google to open up YouTube’s ad inventory could inject some much-needed competition, but it’s just as likely to play right into Google’s hands. It could end up shedding the pieces it no longer needs while tightening its grip on the core moneymakers.

Why? Because the part of Google’s ad business it would be forced to shed if found guilty of monopolistic tactics is already in decline. In fact, it’s been this way since 2021. That year, Google Network brought in $31.7 billion — a hefty 37.3% jump from the previous year. But then came the slide: $29.2 billion in 2022, $28.2 billion in 2023, and the numbers for 2024 aren’t looking much better.

As Eric Seufert, a consultant, analyst and editor of Mobile Dev Memo, put it: “Google’s Network business is in a state of systemic decline and isn’t structurally important to the company. YouTube revenue eclipsed Network revenue by the largest margin ever in Q2 2024 at $1.2BN — this is astonishing in part because YouTube revenue only surpassed Network revenue for the first time in Q2 2023.”

In fact, this segment is so insignificant to Google that Seufert has called it “vestigial” — a relic of an era when consumer attention was primarily focused on the open, desktop web. Or to put it simply, Google Network is declining because the open web is fading, with major publishers shifting to subscription and other revenue models, reducing their reliance on Google’s ad dollars. Google, naturally, is already trying to stay ahead of the curve.

“If Google is forced to spin out its Network business, it may simply see much of that revenue funneled into its higher-margin YouTube and Search channels,” said Seufert. “Given how low the Network margin is, it would only need to direct some small portion of its current Network revenue into Search to remain at net revenue parity.”