Publishers watch warily as tariffs loom over ad budgets and print costs

It could also just be the calm before the storm. 

All are keeping a watchful eye on the outcome of the sustained macroeconomic shock that will likely arise as a direct result should they ever be established, which will raise consumer costs and reduce consumer confidence. Trump said on Wednesday that he was delaying some tariffs by 90 days and increasing China’s to 124% from 104%.

“It’s unlikely that won’t have a detrimental effect on marketing budgets, and we’re not reading any signals that suggest the tariffs are only a short-term policy,” said one senior executive at a major global news publisher, who agreed to speak in exchange for anonymity.

For now, there have been no hasty revising of forecasts, and buyer signals haven’t spooked anyone just yet. There is a consensus that there is an increased appetite among buyers for direct deals, but that’s a trend that had already been well underway. 

“Ad revenues will be weaker than they would have been if the policies were not put in place,” said Brian Wieser, CEO and principal of media consulting firm Madison and Wall, “but the broad trends that were already in place — with limited growth for ‘open web’ publishers — continuing.” 

Most publishers are bracing for how marketers will react to the spike in costs that will hit their supply chains, and any potential knock-on effect that has to advertising budgets being trimmed.

The European Union — which faced a 20% tariff — also voted Wednesday to approve retaliatory tariffs that would take effect April 15. It’s unclear how that could change with Trump’s announced tariff delay. That makes it difficult for publishers in any of the 27 member states to respond or set contingency plans, should ad buyers pull budgets drastically.

“Currently, we’re not seeing any major changes in buying behavior,” said Thomas Lue Lytzen, director of ad sales and tech for Danish tabloid Ekstra Bladet. “Since the beginning of the year, however, we’ve observed some agencies have started buying more directly instead of programmatically. Whether this is due to Trump’s ongoing tariff threats, we do not yet know.” Until the EU responds to the tariffs, they’ll be in a holding pattern, he stressed. “As of now, we’re sticking to our forecasts and budgets.”

Naturally, the tariffs news has put a dampener on this year’s TV and streaming upfront negotiations, with agencies expected to bake flexibility into their deals. While marketers are setting up contingency plans. 

One publishing exec said they’re highly concerned about the immediate effect on luxury brands that import to the U.S. or have extended supply chains, given there is already limited headroom to raise prices. And that will inevitably affect their marketing budgets and agreements with that publisher. 

As Digiday’s sibling title Glossy reported, Trump’s proclamation of tariffs as high as 50% on goods imported from countries like China and Vietnam had sent waves of panic into the fashion and beauty industries given how much they rely on raw fragrance ingredients and packaging globally sourced. 

As for digital subscription revenues, some publishers have said they have noticed an uptick in subscriber engagement levels as a direct result of the tariffs news (though they wouldn’t reveal how much) — like they have for all major news narratives from Trump’s presidency to Brexit and more.

More ‘news deserts’ across the U.S.

In the long term, Trump’s tariffs pose a serious challenge for the publishing industry, already struggling with digital disruption and diminishing ad revenues. These tariffs, targeted at key imports like Canadian newsprint and tech goods for newsrooms, increase production costs and disrupt supply chains. While the tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, their unintended consequences are rattling the media sector, putting the future of print publications in jeopardy.

Holly Lubart, VP of government affairs for the publisher trade association News/Media Alliance, said some publishers — particularly smaller, local newspapers — are being forced to consider layoffs or reduce hourly pay, and cull page counts to offset the increased costs they’ll face on print production. “Some will have to weigh the reality of closing,” she said. “Higher prices and limited supplies are creating a crisis for small town and rural newspapers, which will be severely impacted.” These anticipated closures will create, “more news deserts across the United States with less access to quality journalism,” she said.

A large proportion of U.S. publishers rely on Canadian paper for their newspapers and magazines — it accounts for roughly 80% of all paper used. And there are only three U.S. mills that produce newsprint. Even if all media companies switched to those, there isn’t enough supply, stressed Lubart. Meanwhile, 15% to 25% surcharges have already been put in place on paper production, she added. Many publishers can’t afford to absorb those extra costs without potentially raising print subscriber or advertiser prices, or making other cuts, she added.

An executive at a Canadian publisher, who requested anonymity, shared that they have seen a spending skew toward Canadian products even when it comes to media, due to tariff-induced macroeconomic uncertainty. “Canadian brands want Canadians to buy their products rather than U.S. products and they have been active in pushing that sentiment on our properties,” they added. 

The Cortland Standard — a legacy daily New York state newspaper that’s been going for more than 150 years — closed on March 13 citing the expected 25% newsprint tariff as a core reason. Lubart worries that this is just the start of what will be more closures of smaller, local newspapers.

National publishers are “just as concerned” as smaller publishers, she added, with all likely to have to make “really tough” business decisions due to the tariffs.

Publishers have long been primed to respond to economic downturns and other headwinds, but there could be some challenging months ahead as the full effects become more clear on brand supply chains and production costs. “In general, offsets of higher costs will be managed as they always have been,” said Wieser. “Some publishers will invest in growth but most will try to cut their way to manage against a target profit margin and experience worse long-term outcomes as a result.”

News/Media Alliance, which represents 2,000 news and magazine publishers in the U.S., has created a working group where it can provide updates and hold meetings where strategies are discussed among publishers of all sizes, on how to advocate against the tariffs. The trade association has also submitted written comments to the Commerce Department urging them to forgo any implementation of tariffs on critical paper and news printing paper, according to Lubart.