With the World Cup around the corner, media buyers expect streaming prices to soar

Cut-down versions of the ad will be used on TV across several of Rexona’s markets starting this month and continuing into May, while its U.S. business is set to air a separate Pulisic-centric campaign tailored for American viewers closer to the tournament’s beginning. The company drew on a web of sponsorship agreements with FIFA, top soccer clubs like Manchester City, and individual deals with players like Wirtz, to assemble its cast.

“We’re looking at creators [across] the full spectrum from nano, all the way up to ambassadors,” Em Heath, Unilever’s London-based global brand director for Rexona and Sure, told Digiday.

It’s a neat demonstration of Unilever’s master plan for the World Cup, which aims to balance the mass-reach of TV against an increase in social and creator spending with the likes of Meta and TikTok to capitalise on the tournament’s “high reach, high ability to drive spikes in sales and connect with big audiences,” per Heath.

High reach – and high prices

About 1.5 billion people watched the 2022 World Cup final, according to FIFA. And with huge audiences expected to tune in this time around, the media companies holding broadcast and streaming rights in the U.S. (Fox and NBCU’s Telemundo) have been attaching a premium to their coverage. 

Scarce ad breaks – brands only have the pre and post-game, hydration breaks and half-time pauses in which to reach viewers – and the United States’ role as co-host have served to pump up pricing.

Though much of the inventory was sewn up during last year’s upfronts and by FIFA partners given first refusal, Fox was selling packages around the tournament as late as January and February, two media buyers told Digiday. A spokesperson for Fox did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.

The network offered up remaining linear inventory with a minimum spending requirement of $5 million, with a $5 million matched spending deal on streaming inventory.

For games featuring the U.S. national team, that rose to a total minimum spending threshold of $10-15 million. Ad units set to be shown during the World Cup final were locked behind a tournament-wide commitment of $25 million.

“It’s wild,” said one media buyer, who exchanged anonymity for candor. “You’re looking at unit costs that are up to above $1 million plus, for a rating that is nowhere near what an NFL playoff unit is.”

‘You need to have a conversation’

Most brands lack the media firepower required to even consider such offers. For marketers who missed their chance for early deals but which still want to get their brands in front of soccer audiences this summer, the scatter market beckons.

Susan Rupert, vp of media at performance media agency Rainstorm Direct, told Digiday the agency’s clients had considered – and ultimately turned down – World Cup options owing to the high cost. “We’re very performance focused. That kind of a commitment doesn’t necessarily make sense,” she said.

Streaming inventory available via programmatic auctions won’t command the same prices. That doesn’t mean it’ll come cheap, though. Buyers expect costs to rise as advertisers priced out of linear negotiations look for a last minute way in.

“You’ll see a strong pivot into CTV from brands who have waited until the last moment and then [been] priced out,” predicted Nathan Foster, svp of sales at media agency Brkthru.

Rachel Costanzo, senior director, media investment at Tinuiti, said some of the agency’s brands were still finalizing World Cup spending plans. “We have a range of clients at various stages of the funnel: from those who have already secured premium digital placements to those currently exploring the landscape or planning to lean into dynamic, in-flight inventory via PMP activations,” she said in an email.

Forecasts by performance advertising business Keynes based on analysis of streaming CPMs during the 2024 Summer Olympics, and this year’s Winter games – the only TV events comparable to a World Cup – suggested that CPMs for World Cup coverage would range between $60 and $120. CPMs for the hydration breaks alone could command $65-$100, the company estimated.

It’s a big range, and where prices end up will depend on a number of variables: the kick-off times of specific games, the profile of the teams paired up and most of all, the progress of the U.S. national team. A decent cup run could galvanize interest among casual viewers, while a flameout in the group stages might dampen enthusiasm.

“You’re gonna get more people watching, but there’s less ad opportunities,” said Keynes CEO and founder Dan Larkman. “The unknown variable is: how far does the U.S. go?”

Other buyers echoed the estimates. An $120 CPM “would not surprise me,” said Rupert.

“Depending on the match… you’re going to have Messi and Ronaldo and Team U.S.A., I don’t think $120 is crazy to think about,” said Jimmy Spano, evp and head of Dentsu Media Sports.

It’s typical for brands to fix price ceilings in advance, and demand would likely taper off should CPMs rise above a set point. “I want to see sub-$60 CPMs, right? I think as soon as you creep past the $70-$75 range you really need to have a conversation,” said Larkman.

‘More efficient ways to reach fans’

Not every buyer expects streaming CPMs will hit such heights. Doug Paladino, CTV and programmatic lead at PMG, told Digiday that his clients’ ceiling would be closer to $50-60. “I think that is at the high end of what’s palatable for live sports,” he said.

Paladino argued that participating brands could bring costs lower by opting for less frequently used formats such as squeezeback units (an L-shaped split-screen ad format) or CTV home-screen takeovers.

“We’re really looking at how we can surround soccer fans in general… There’s a lot of opportunities to reach fans. We’re looking at in-game, but also more efficient ways to reach those fans on other mediums,” he said.

Tinuiti’s Costanzo said advertisers needn’t be put off by the higher sticker prices. “It is a massive opportunity, but the strategy must be sophisticated,” she said. “The key is curation. We are looking across FOX, Telemundo, vMVPDs [virtual multichannel video programming distributors], streaming devices, and social activations to build optimal, multi-faceted packages. 

“The biggest misconception is that you need a Fortune 500 budget to participate. The 2026 media landscape is uniquely primed to meet brands where they are, ensuring that any advertiser with a smart, agile strategy can be part of this global phenomenon without the barrier of a $25 million entry fee,” added Costanzo.

Furthermore, despite the high demand among advertisers, some media experts advise caution for brands considering a late charge into World Cup inventory. 

Spano said advertisers should consider whether their budgets would allow them to meaningfully cut through alongside the likes of Unilever or Nike. 

“You really need to invest… a spot here [or] there isn’t really going to make an impact for a brand,” he said. “Is that money going to work harder for you in the World Cup, or somewhere else?”

Michael Bürgi contributed to this report.