‘There’s no such thing as recession-proofing’: Small businesses grapple with shifting economy 

“It’s a guessing game every day,” Kimberlee Vaccarella, CEO and founder of Bogg Bag, told Digiday, adding, “There’s so many moving parts there that it’s hard.” The moving parts Vaccarella is referring to is the start and stop nature of the tariffs and its ripple effects on the supply chain, consumer spending and long-term marketing plans. 

The tote bag brand is in a state of paralysis, unsure how to best curb tariff costs, and even considering expanding its manufacturing operations beyond China, Vaccarella said. Tariffs are also impacting marketing decisions. If products aren’t delivered because of the tariffs, marketing campaigns are moot, she added. 

Vaccarrella isn’t alone in her frustrations. On April 14, a group of small businesses filed a lawsuit arguing the tariffs were illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Brands like Each & Every fragrance and Naturepedic organic mattresses are also feeling the effects of the tariffs. While neither Each & Every nor Naturepedic have direct manufacturing or production materials coming from China, where 145% tariffs are in place, both source materials from other parts of the globe.

The mattress brand, for example, sources materials across a variety of countries, like Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Thailand, which are facing 44%, 46% and 36% tariffs, respectively. Thailand is set to discuss tariffs with the U.S. today, according to Reuters. Arin Schultz, chief growth officer at Naturepedic, said the game plan is to try and source everything the brand can domestically for now. On March 28, ahead of Earth Day this year, Naturepedic put out an educational campaign featuring its partnership with regenerative farmers in Texas for the brand’s organic cotton sourcing, leaning into marketing parts of the business that are made in the U.S. 

Notably, the tariffs seem to have created an opening for “Made in America” ads in which brands are lauding American origins for their products. Take, for example, Ford Motor Company, which recently released its “Committed to America” campaign with the tagline, “From America, For America.”

“There are going to be companies that are American-made positioning themselves as a viable option for consumers in the wake of these tariffs,” said Camila Caldas, senior strategist at Mother LA.

Caldas also noted that doing so will be a delicate dance to maintain objectivity from the administration. “Leaning too hard into America first language, that might be considered by some to be politically charged and could be a huge point of alienation for them and their consumers,” said Caldas.

Neither the fragrance brand nor mattress brand say they can accurately read the tariff tea leaves, hesitant to make any broad sweeping changes to their channel and marketing mix, considering any firm plans could be upended at any given moment. 

Still, even through all the uncertainty, agency execs say they’re warning clients not to shut off the ad spend valve in light of economic uncertainty, noting that it’ll be difficult and expensive to rebuild brand awareness that leads to sales. That said, the prices of consumer goods will be more expensive and brand marketers will have make adjustments they see as appropriate to preserve market share.

“Overall, clients are expecting to see reduced consumer spending in general and some are considering pausing or scaling back on advertising and media investments or shifting investments in certain channels,” wrote Robin Cohen, evp of media planning at Rain the Growth Agency in an email. Cohen did not provide specific client spend figures. 

Naturepedic’s Schultz said the writing has been on the wall since the Trump administration entered the White House, announcing tariff plans on Jan. 20. In response, Schultz is hesitant to scale spend in experimental channels like podcast advertising and CTV. “What if we commit to a larger budget and people just don’t want to buy? It’s just the nature of things,” he said. 

Meanwhile, Each & Every founder and CEO Lauren Lovelady said the brand is increasing spend in digital marketing, notably within retail media networks, to boost brand awareness and stand out in an increasingly crowded marketplace. Lovelady declined to provide specific spend figures. 

If the last five years have taught us anything, it’s that the only thing certain is uncertainty. Meaning, marketers expect the chaos at this point. Amidst the tariffs and economic uncertainty, marketers are also contending with the impending TikTok ban and now Meta’s mounting anti-trust case launched by the Federal Trade Commission last week. 

“As new information comes out, we are constantly reassessing where should we be spending dollars, where should we be pulling back,” Lovelady said, adding, “there’s no such thing as recession-proofing, but where can we do the most to ensure that we can still get our brand message out there and serve our consumers without losing the business.”