Brands set to cut open web display spend 30% in response to AI search

“We expect that fewer consumers will be landing on the web pages where most of that display inventory has historically existed, and so there will just be fewer monetizable audiences there to begin with,” said Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, ad-tech analyst at Forrester.

Google introduced Overviews in May 2024, and AI Mode in March of this year. A 2024 estimate suggested as many as 60% of Google searches ended without a click. “Advertising budgets will shift accordingly to reach, to be where the eyeballs are,” she added.

According to some media agencies, the shift is already taking place.

Tim Lathrop, vp of platform digital at Mediassociates, told Digiday his clients had reduced their open web display spending by 20-30% during 2025, without providing exact figures.

“We’re seeing clients shifting budget to reallocate,” he said. Meanwhile, CTV and ad-supported streaming video offered “storytelling” capabilities, increasingly alongside shoppable and interactive formats that can support brands’ e-commerce ambitions, he noted.

Related Insights

Generative AI

In Graphic Detail: How AI search is changing brand visibility Read More

“I see the open web display category declining, for sure,” said Jonathan Geller, co-founder of indie full-service agency Lower Cross. “Why would we allocate a budget to something that’s almost unmeasurable, that we really can’t see the performance lift of without doing tons of modeling… Why not throw that more into something where you know what the input and the output is?”

This isn’t about ad spend leaving the market. It’s expected to flow toward channels like CTV, paid social and streaming audio, which allow advertisers to find audiences enjoying entertainment content — a type of media consumption largely unaffected by the advent of zero-click search. “The whole point is that there is a human on the other end,” said Mitchell-Wolf.

For some media buyers, it’s a shift that’s been in the offing since zero-click search options first arrived.

“People aren’t going directly to sites in quite the same way,” said Mindshare chief transformation officer Alexis Faulkner. “Display media is really challenged.”

Some categories of display, such as those offered by retail media networks, are still attractive for advertisers. WARC figures published earlier this week projected retail media network investment would reach $174.9 billion this year, up 13.7% year-on-year. Increasingly, that inventory includes display formats alongside the core retail search offering. 

But in January, the IAB estimated that digital display’s overall share of global ad spend would fall 1% this year, to 12.8% of overall media investment. Its annual Outlook study also projected annual growth in display investment falling from 7.4% in 2024, to 4.4% in 2025.

Publishers are wise to the shift, but ways forward are less clear. ”You can’t rely on Google anymore,” Donna Ogier, Reach plc’s directer of U.S. audience, said onstage at the Digiday Publishing Summit Europe in Lisbon, Portugal.

“The last upgrade… the change Google made, has just decimated Google traffic,” said another publishing exec, speaking under Chatham House rules at the Summit’s Town Hall session. “To my mind, permanently. It’s not coming back… You look at the screen when you search for Google, you don’t see the listings anymore. You see the snippet or the overview, or a couple of Wikipedia bits, even a couple of pictures.”

Mitchell-Wolf suggested those that focus on maintaining the user and ad experience of their most loyal readers would fare better.

“Trying not to give consumers more reasons, additional reasons to spend less time on the website is the goal,” she said.