After third postponement, media buyers don’t believe TikTok is going to be banned

Last month’s ad spend was 76% higher than in May 2024. Amazon, Comcast, Disney, Walmart and Intuit were the platform’s top advertisers between January and May, collectively spending $213 million — a 75% rise on the same period last year.

“Each round of deadlines, we get less and less questions,” said one media buyer, who exchanged anonymity for candor. “We are not hearing a ton of chatter from clients this time around. Even TikTok themselves have said that they haven’t heard anything from their internal leadership yet.”

A TikTok spokesperson directed Digiday to a statement the company released on June 19th, which expressed gratitude for “for President Trump’s leadership and support in ensuring that TikTok continues to be available for more than 170 million American users and 7.5 million U.S. businesses.”

Agencies and advertisers were expected to raise the topic of the ban in Cannes last week, but sources told Digiday any questions or concerns were considered non-issues; TikTok execs circumvented any ban talk to highlight product updates and audience figures.

Shamsul Chowdhury, global evp of paid social at Jellyfish, said that the agency’s spending on TikTok had grown year-on-year and would likely continue to do so, regardless of the risk of the platform disappearing.

“Our TikTok spend has continued to gain momentum and talks of a ban, whether current or pending, have not had any impact on client spend,” he said, without providing financial specifics.

Even media shops that took a wary approach leading into the first ban deadline back in January have dropped their caution. Media agency KSM paused client spending on TikTok in January during the brief blackout of the first ban deadline, for example. Since then, according to vp of investment services Sara Lemmerman, it’s kept the taps running.

“The consumers for certain clients that we’re looking to reach are actively using the platform regularly, and [it] is a very strong way to reach especially those younger audiences, so we’ve continued to stay the course,” she said.

One reason behind their confidence is TikTok’s own messaging toward media agencies. One media buyer, who exchanged anonymity for candor, shared that their reps at the platform had said (paraphrasing) of the ban: “It’s not going to happen because Trump is committed to the first amendment and believes in free speech, [and] they are grateful and thankful for his understanding.”

Another anonymous agency exec told Digiday there was “a tremendous amount of optimism” in TikTok’s communications with their company. “No one talks about the downsides,” they said.

They’ve been reassuring buyers that brand accounts would remain functional through any acquisition handover, and that audience data remains in the United States, according to a second anonymous media buyer.

That’s not to say that media buyers and marketers are taking TikTok’s word for it. 

The platform’s importance for brands investing in creator marketing, social commerce and paid social means it’s impossible to ignore. That’s particularly true for brands going after younger consumer audiences, though TikTok’s user base is more diverse than it was (30% of the app’s users are aged 25-34, per YouGov).

“It’s the best way to win Gen Z,” said John Gladysz, head of product at media agency Noble People.

“TikTok now firmly sits as our second most scaled platform in terms of total media under management behind Meta,” said Darren D’Altorio, svp of paid media, Wpromote. “TikTok has remained a critical layer in the media plan,” he added (he didn’t state exactly how much media investment Wpromote funnels through TikTok).

Cost is another reason to stick rather than twist, noted Andrew Ruegger, chief data, analytics, and technology officer at Media by Mother. CPM rates (cost-per-thousand) vary widely depending on the buy but on average, but Ruegger said that TikTok’s CPMs had fallen from $11-$11.50 to $9.50-$10.

Nobody’s ignoring the fact that TikTok might still be banned. Trump’s brinkmanship has put off the deadline three times already, but there’s no guarantee his approach will yield another extension beyond Sept. 17. 

Should a deal to buy the platform’s U.S. business finally take shape, marketers might alter how much budget they allot to it — especially if a changeover includes alterations to TikTok’s prized For You algorithm. Long-term plans for advertising on TikTok still carry a ‘buyer beware’ stamp on the cover.

But until those possibilities become realities, experts like Lemmerman see no reason to change course in the short to mid-term. “Until there’s some sort of change that’s going to impact users we’re staying the course,” she said.

“It’s an empty threat and largely political posturing, and the lack of urgency around taking action reflects that reality,” said D’Altorio.