Future of TV Briefing: The top trends and developments that will shape the future of TV in 2025

This week’s Future of TV Briefing looks at some of the top trends and developments to keep an eye on in 2025.

• The year-in-preview
Honey’s boo boo
Netflix’s newest sports deal, Google’s tracking change, Hollywood’s hard times and more

The year-in-preview

If 2024 felt less monumental than recent years when it comes to the TV, streaming and digital video industry, that may be because its ultimate legacy will be to serve as preamble to what may be an especially significant year.

Sure, there were notable developments last year: the sales of Paramount and Vizio; Amazon nabbing NBA rights away from Warner Bros. Discovery; Comcast, Paramount and WBD reappraising the value of their cable TV businesses; the TikTok sale-or-shutdown decree; Amazon Prime Video’s entry into the streaming ad market; Nielsen’s decision not to eliminate its legacy TV ad measurements; OpenAI’s introduction of Sora — OK, 2024 was maybe a little more than just notable. But many of those developments last year are effectively first dominos that will likely carry bigger effects this year.

Here are the top developments to keep an eye on in 2025:

The great rebundling

I’m only partially talking about the trend of streaming services striking arrangements to co-sell subscriptions. That will probably continue and expand in 2025. But what I’m more interested in watching is how the companies that own various streaming services — as well as traditional TV networks — reshuffle.

A lot of this reshuffling is pieces put in place last year falling into their final position. The Paramount-Skydance deal is set to close this year, and Walmart’s acquisition of Vizio closed at the tail end of last year. Meanwhile, Comcast will spin off the bulk of its cable TV business, and WBD will split its TV business from its streaming and studios business. Each of the latter moves are likely precursors to mergers or acquisitions, and all of the aforementioned moves could incite more deals.

Walmart-Vizio, for example, may push Roku to seek a well-funded buyer to compete with the behemoths behind its primary rival CTV platforms (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Samsung). And the reshuffling of the aforementioned cable TV networks could trigger actions by the likes of A+E Networks and AMC Networks to seek out new corporate parents. Disney CEO Bob Iger may even return to the notion he had previously floated of reevaluating the company’s TV portfolio, though the company’s commitment to the pay-TV business has taken on a new level with its deal to take a majority ownership of streaming pay-TV service Fubo.

The TikTok ban

Whether or not TikTok ends up being sold or banned in the U.S., there will be repercussions.

Let’s start with the obvious one. If TikTok is banned, that creates a massive opening for YouTube Shorts, Instagram Reels and even Snapchat to take the top position in the short-form video market. It could also create a vacuum that would suck up many creators’ businesses if they hadn’t been diligent about accumulating audiences on other platforms ahead of time. And it would free up an unconscionable amount of time that people spend scrolling on their phones, which could benefit everyone from streaming services to digital video platforms and beyond. It could, for example, be the window that Spotify has been waiting for to make a legitimate push into video beyond music videos and video podcasts.

If TikTok ends up being sold, that will clearly have a huge impact. But much of that would depend on who would end up owning it, so there’s not a ton to say until that happens — if it does.

Which brings us to the other outcome: TikTok gets a pass and can continue to operate in the U.S. As much as TikTok executives had said they were operating “business as usual” last year, it’s hard to imagine the looming ban did not have some effect on its business, either with respect to product plans or advertisers’ and creators’ level of commitment to the platform. A new level of security that TikTok’s future in the U.S. market is protected could lead the platform to reinvigorate its push into the connected TV market to compete with YouTube and allow advertisers and creators to more comfortably bet on its prospects.

The streaming ad game

The story of the streaming ad market last year was the pricing correction that came after Amazon Prime Video introduced an ad-supported tier and further expanded the pool of available inventory beyond the level of advertiser demand. That trend will take on a new form this year, once again in part thanks to Amazon.

This fall, Amazon will start streaming NBA games on Prime Video. That will not only open up even more streaming ad inventory but especially desirable inventory, considering that live sports is the last bastion of the large concurrent audiences that many traditional brand advertisers are after. And Amazon is far from the only one using live sports to siphon ad dollars to streaming. Just this week, Netflix debuted “WWE Raw” (wrestling is a sport, sports are inherently entertainment, come at me). Beyond sports but still in the realm of live events, Disney will stream the Academy Awards on Hulu for the first time this year.

Speaking of Disney, its Fubo deal clears the path for the Disney-Fox-WBD-backed sports-centric streamer Venu to finally launch this year. Additionally, Disney’s flagship TV network ESPN plans to debut a standalone streaming service this year, which will likely catalyze the ongoing cord-cutting trend and add more ad inventory.

Measurement currency changeover canceled?

I don’t know if this will be the last year we talk about a measurement currency changeover for traditional TV advertising, but it seems like it could be.

Last fall Nielsen pulled a Google and decided not to phase out its legacy TV measurements after all. As with the third-party cookie, that doesn’t mean those metrics should be counted on as the future of TV ad measurement, but it does make it easier for TV ad buyers and sellers to continue to count on them and sidestep whatever cost increases would come with having to support alternative currencies.

But alternative currencies are still necessary. As covered above, streaming is taking more and more money away from the traditional TV ad market, and traditional TV measurements aren’t necessarily best suited for streaming.

That’s why Nielsen, for one, has been developing its panel-plus-data measurement system, despite deciding to keep its panel-only option around. And it’s not like Comscore, iSpot.tv, VideoAmp, et al., have thrown in the towel (or Paramount for that matter). Nielsen may be unwilling to leave its legacy measurement system in the past, but the future of TV streaming measurement is still in need of a new option.

AI-generated everything

I can’t conclude this roundup of expectations for 2025 without bringing up AI. Because it will have an impact. As with the other entries, 2024 was a setup year for generative AI’s impact on the video industry. OpenAI released Sora; Coca-Cola and Toys”R”Us released AI-generated ads; and Amazon, Meta and TikTok released tools to create AI-generated video ads.

Basically, the groundwork has been laid for more AI-generated videos to appear in people’s feeds. And they probably will. For as much pushback as Coca-Cola and Toys”R”Us received for their AI-generated ads, the fact is that enlisting generative AI tools to make ads can save time and money. For as much as companies may like to talk about the importance of creativity, we’re ultimately talking about capitalist enterprises.

Besides, these are creative tools. There are still human minds behind what the technology creates. And with deals signed last year like the ones between SAG-AFTRA and Narrativ and between Lionsgate and Runway, the use of generative AI for advertising and entertainment is being legitimized. Of all the developments in store for 2025, this is the one I’m most interested in monitoring because it’s the one that seems set to have the longest-standing impact.

What we’ve heard

“The spend is absolutely skewing far more towards the nano and the micro influencer over the follower count just because of the genuine connection they have with their audiences.”

— Empower Media’s Gregory Curtis Jr. on the rise of niche and nano-creators

What we’re watching: Honey’s boo boo

The PayPal-owned browser extension allegedly ripped off top YouTube creators by keeping the share of revenue from affiliate shopping links that Honey was supposed to give to the creators, according to investigative creator MegaLag. The video in which MegaLag exposes the alleged scam has received more than 14 million views since being published on Dec. 21.

Numbers to know

24 million: Average number of people who were watching at any given minute during Netflix’s Christmas Day NFL games.

43%: Percentage share of streaming subscriptions that are for ad-supported tiers.

$14.99: The monthly subscription price for CNBC’s upcoming standalone streaming service.

65%: Percentage share of eligible podcast shows that have enrolled in Spotify’s Partner Program for video podcasts.

What we’ve covered

Teen creators jumpstart careers by selling clothes online and getting brand sponsorships:

• One in three U.S. teens under 18 have been approached by brands to advertise their products.
• Teens make the most from selling clothes, footwear and accessories.

Read more about teen creators here.

How mobile game publisher HOMA worked with TikTok to create a viral hit inspired by #CleanTok:

• The developer has created multiple casual games that play off relevant TikTok trends.
• The “Clean It” game received more than 2.5 million installs in its first six months.

Read more about #CleanTok here.

What the rise of the niche and nano-creator means for influencer marketing:

• 75% of Sway Group’s client proposals called for niche influencers.
• Nano-influencers have higher engagement rates than influencers with more than 1 million followers.

Read more about influencer marketing here.

Ad revenue or subscriptions: What’s more viable to Snap’s success as a business?:

• Subscriptions are a modest slice of Snap’s revenue but contributed to the company’s revenue growth last quarter.
• Snapchat+ topped 12 million subscribers in Q3 2024.

Read more about Snapchat here.

Influencer shops hope to entice creators with talent platforms that offer CTV, AI features:

• Horizon Media’s Blue Hour Studios has created a way to turned creators’ content into interactive TV assets.
• Whalar has developed a tool for talent managers working with creators.

Read more about influencer shops here.

What we’re reading

Netflix nabs Women’s World Cup rights:

The streamer has added to its live sports portfolio by signing a deal for exclusive streaming rights to the 2027 and 2031 Women’s World Cup tournaments, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

Google green-lights IP address-based ad tracking:

After deciding to keep the third-party cookie around, the digital ad giant has now given a pass for advertisers to use IP addresses to target people with ads on devices including connected TVs, but the U.K.’s Information Commissioner’s Office has called out the inherent privacy concerns raised by the move, according to The Guardian.

Hollywood on the wane:

Film-and-TV workers in the U.S. are suffering from more productions taking place not only outside of California but outside of the U.S., continuing the hardships imposed by the pandemic and then last year’s strikes, according to Bloomberg.

TikTok creators shrug off ban concerns:

Creators and advertisers aren’t yet abandoning the platform, which is on the verge of being banned in the U.S. though President-elect Donald Trump wants to avoid that outcome, according to The Wall Street Journal.

TelevisaUnivision v. Fubo:

The TV network owner and streaming pay-TV provider couldn’t come to terms on how much Fubo should pay TU to carry its networks, leading the former to remove its networks from the latter’s service, according to Variety.