Media Buying Briefing: Brands push toward retail and social while buyers ponder storm clouds

Publicis reported 5% organic growth and Havas 2.4%, while Omnicom charted organic growth of 7.3% in the third quarter. (Interestingly, Omnicom did not offer Q4 guidance in its earnings call last week, despite its solid YTD numbers.)

Publicis Groupe CEO Arthur Sadoun said he expected similar growth in the fourth quarter of the year. “We could be close to 5% [organic growth] for the full year, if the macro economy gets better. That’s what we’re expecting,” Sadoun told analysts during the firm’s earnings call.

“In general, the the U.S. ad market backdrop seems to be very supportive at the minute,” said Adrien de Saint Hilaure, managing director and head of European media and gaming research at Bank of America.

The fourth quarter is where spending forecasts and market optimism meet the hard realities of seasonal sales and consumer confidence. Kering’s CFO Armelle Poulou, told analysts it was among the companies leaning in during the last three months of the year. “We are increasing media investment [and] strengthening communication… in Q4,” she said, without providing specifics. 

Updated ad spend forecasts from WARC suggest that media investment in the fourth quarter will raise global ad spending to $1.34 trillion, an 11.9% increase on 2025. WARC’s global media forecast suggest the lion’s share of ad spend during the final months of 2026 is flowing toward social media, video and search, with spend on the former growing 21.3% in Q3.

In the U.K. the quarterly IPA Bellwether survey found that 25.6% of marketers had raised their budgets in Q3, the third quarterly increase in a row. Spending on digital video and direct marketing were among the channels on the receiving end of that investment.

Increased social video spending has been one of the biggest media trends of 2026. The usual Q4 focus on booting sales means it’s set to intensify, alongside spending on other performance media options.

That tracks with the experience of agency execs dealing with clients large and small. Six media buyers told Digiday clients were prioritizing video and performance channels as they competed for market share during the crucial final quarter of the year.

“In Q4, if it can’t be measured, it isn’t making the plan,” said Sarah Engel, president of January Digital. “Brands are zeroed in on performance and on the dollars they can tie directly to results.”

That attitude, she said, was driving the torrent of spend heading toward Meta, TikTok and Amazon. Meta’s ad revenues rose 26% in the third quarter, according to its latest tranche of earnings data.

“Some brands are working hardest to protect social commerce, even trimming elsewhere where necessary,” she said.

“Digital and platforms continue to thrive,” said Alistair MacCallum, chief growth officer MSQ-owned U.K. media agency TodayTomorrow. He noted that “TV is likely to be 5%-7% down year-on-year, particularly in categories such as travel, utilities, telco and leisure.”

Ashley Muench, founder of performance and creative agency Scène Studios, which primarily works with DTC and apparel companies, said her clients’ ad budgets were up as much as 20% in Q4, compared with last year. Most of that increase was intended for social platforms, she added.

“More people actively shopping also means more opportunities to attract new customers and retarget those already considering a purchase,” said Muench.

Meanwhile, Scott Shamberg, president and CEO of indie media agency Mile Marker, said clients had ratcheted up spending on retail media by 20%-30% going into the final quarter, fueled by pulling budget from linear TV and, to a lesser extent, search. “Retail media is the one that jumps off the charts,” he said.

The picture looks more fragile closer to the ground. A Madison & Wall analysis of Omnicom’s results suggested that much of its organic growth could be credited to cost-cutting exercises — shuttering agencies and staff cuts — rather than underlying revenue increases. 

In the U.S., advertisers are keeping a close eye on the midterm elections, and their impact on consumer confidence, according to Wendy Mason, senior director of strategy at indie media agency Moroch.

“Many clients are holding their breath until we know the outcome of the mid-terms,” she said. “With consumer confidence at near record lows, any change in the balance of power that gives people hope that financial relief may be coming is likely to give some consumers the confidence they need to spend as we go into holiday season.”

MacCallum said that “advertiser confidence remains resilient,” but could yet be knocked by a range of potential external threats, from the U.K. government’s upcoming budget, to consumers responding to high fuel prices and cost-of-living pressures by delaying bookings or purchases later into the year.

According to David Dweck, president of GoFish Digital, ad spend has been rising on retail media channels like Amazon, Walmart and Target. But budgets have slowed their heady ascent.

The company had expected spending on Amazon to increase 30% year-on-year, but has found budget increases closer to 7% so far. “We’re anticipating lower spend this year than last year,” he said. In the short term, that’s a consequence of a “soft” Prime Day sales performance for some clients, plus political uncertainty.

Those figures could accelerate once the midterms are past, he added. But it may be a sign that 2026’s final act holds more than unending social ad spend rises.

Color by numbers

It comes as little surprise given how bad news is these days, but almost 40% of Americans actively avoid news due to media fatigue and distrust. But they apparently remain politically engaged, which seems to be good news for the upcoming mid-term elections. Nexxen tracked past, present and future behavior, and found that 86% of “news-avoidant voters” plan to vote in the 2026 midterms, up from 80% who voted in 2024. Nexxen’s research also found:

• 91% of news-avoiding voters passively encounter political content in non-traditional news environments such as social media, streaming and creator content;
• 41% said creators influence their opinions, highlighting the growing role of personality-driven content over institutional messaging (it ranked just behind Friends and Family);
• More than 35% use search engines or AI tools to help shape their views, signaling the emergence of new, intent-driven moments.

Takeoff & landing

• Publicis moved new leadership atop Marcel, its agentic activation platform, naming Scott Hagedorn CEO and Sam Levine Archer to be chief strategy officer. 
• Account moves: Omnicom’s OMD won Lavazza’s global media business following a review … Dentsu won Diageo’s trade and shopper account … Indie Noble People won Coinbase’s media AOR duties from incumbent Wavemaker … Gupta Media was named paid media agency of record for golf industry non-profit USGA following a pitch … Social agency SAMY won global influencer marketing agency duties for dating app Grindr. 
• Personnel moves: David MacMillan, CEO of Havas CX shop Helia, stepped down after 13 years with the holdco … Crossmedia hired Avi Ben-Zvi to be managing director and head of social to lead its paid social business, a new position. He comes over Dentsu, where he was svp of paid social … RPA hired Kevin Mayer to be president and COO, coming from Mars Veterinary Health where he was CMO … CMI Media Group promoted Leanne Smith to chief data privacy officer from evp of data strategy and governance.

— Michael Bürgi

Direct quote

“When you talk about the 2028 [political ad] cycle, linear TV will still be important. It’ll probably be more important to Republicans, assuming they’re still the older, more rural, whiter party in 2028 than the Democrats. Democrats will probably rely more on streaming and social media through their primary cycles. But it’s going to be a mix of both, and it’s going to be for ad buyers constantly evaluating what is the right mix to get the audience that I need in a given state.”

— Brent Seaborn, co-founder and chief data science officer at research and intelligence platform Tunnl, on the 2028 presidential election cycle, which will likely outspend this mid-term election’s record $11.6 billion.

Speed reading

• Seb Joseph and Michael Bürgi covered the news that Omnicom landed Coca-Cola’s North American media business, following a review. Bürgi also spoke with Omnicom leadership about Q3 earnings that showed an improvement in its financial condition.
• Joseph and Krystal Scanlon wrote about the changing nature of pitches at the holdco level.
• Kimeko McCoy analyzed the latest levels of tension building between agencies and DSPs over the changing nature of fees.
• And I looked at how media buyers are finding new oppportunities for their clients in the latest NBA season.