Amazon reverses its Google Shopping retreat, making life harder for performance buyers

This week Amazon plunged back in. 

According to Mike Ryan, head of e-commerce insights at Smart Commerce, Amazon’s share in every market fell from 70% to 0% after July 22; as of Aug. 23, it was back up at 74% in every market bar the United States, implying a return to investment.

“It was as if nothing had happened,” said Ryan.

An Amazon spokesperson declined to comment on the matter, but its activity is visible to search practitioners through the use of Auction Insights, a tool Google provides that enables them to monitor the share of search impressions gained by top advertisers in the market, relative to their own clients.

Though the ‘what’ of the matter is clear enough, the ‘why’ remains a bit of a mystery. An ultra-lean approach to ad spend during the fallow weeks between Prime Day and Black Friday, or a grand incrementality test are both viable theories. Given the retreat lasted precisely 31 days, the latter’s the most popular hypothesis. Either way, there are implications for the other brands active in Google Shopping.

Why does this matter for other advertisers?

Individual brands vary their search spending constantly, in line with seasonal needs or the requirements of specific campaigns. Amazon’s maneuvers stand out, though, as an illustration of power from the e-commerce giant. 

Last year, it successfully repriced streaming CPMs to suit its own offering — in the process putting a dint in Netflix’s plan to put a high premium on streaming ads. July’s move managed to provoke a rapid and significant response from e-commerce platform competitors like Target, Etsy and Wayfair, which increased their activity in Google Shopping during Amazon’s pause, per Ryan and Sam Piliero, founder and CEO of performance agency The Moonlighters.

When Amazon paused its spending, performance agency execs hoped that their cost-per-click rates (CPCs) might fall – providing an opening for their clients. Google’s agency reps even used the moment to suggest clients up their spending in Amazon’s absence. But in the end, Digiday sources report that only came through for brands operating in categories without a lot of competition (other than Amazon).

CPC rates fell 10% for apparel and fashion clients during Amazon’s pause, according to Brett Fischer, associate director of performance media at U.S. agency Collective Measures. He said the e-commerce firm’s withdrawal had partially prompted more spending on Google Shopping. “Our clients are just seeing a natural opportunity to continue to scale there … regardless of whether Amazon is there or not,” he said.

Heidi Sturrock, consultant at OMG Commerce, told Digiday that she observed a 25-30% drop in CPCs during the week after Amazon’s initial retreat. But, she noted, “the cost relief lasted only a few days to a week.”

Leaving aside the brands in convenient categories, the hoped-for decrease wasn’t as large as expected. With other e-commerce platforms filling the gap, what dip did occur, didn’t last.

Scott Carruthers, senior director of paid search at Journey Further, said that barring a single FMCG client which saw a 40% drop in CPCs, the rest of the agency’s roster saw only 2-3% decreases during the 31-day withdrawal. “We didn’t really see it drop off,” he said.

“There has been a small decrease in CPCs, nothing out of the norm,” agreed Piliero. 

While U.S. marketers wait for Amazon to return and remix pricing dynamics once again, Amazon’s re-entry in Europe and the U.K. could bring headaches for practitioners. Though Carruthers suggested it means a return to the status quo, Sturrock suggested it might cause Google Shopping CPCs to rise. “Now that Amazon has reentered internationally, those advertisers may see their impression share compress in those markets,” she said.

It means that a potential opportunity for performance marketers hasn’t just failed to appear — it’s turned into a minor threat.

“Amazon left. The vacuum got filled nearly instantaneously. It’s filled now, and Amazon’s jumping back in,” concluded Ryan. “So someone’s got to lose out on this situation and somehow, I don’t think it will be Temu and Walmart.”