The digital media business is famously fragmented, but that hides the fact that a huge chunk of spending goes to a handful of firms. That trend should continue unabated, according to a new forecast.
EMarketer estimates that by 2014 the market will be dominated by Google and Facebook, which will represent a combined 38.8 percent of the entire market. Google should grow its display business 88 percent, according to the researcher, while Facebook is poised to record 50 percent growth. Overall consolidation, even without acquisitions, will concentrate 54 percent of the market with the top five ad sellers. That’s up from 47 percent now.
Forecasts are, of course, fickle. Two years is a long time, considering that two years ago Facebook was a comparatively small fry in the ad business. There’s no telling that another hot service won’t rise up to capture even more marketer dollars. EMarketer itself has revised its Facebook forecasts plenty. Last September it estimated Facebok would sell $2 billion in U.S. display advertising. It now says that figure was $1.73 billion, a 14 percent difference. Back then it thought Facebook would surpass $3.8 billion in total ad revenue in 2011. Facebook’s IPO filing reported its total ad revenue for the year was actually $3.15 billion, $650 million lower.
More in Media
‘JG believed that even in a demanding industry, it was possible to lead with both rigor and humanity’
The industry pays respects to OpenX CEO John Gentry, who sadly passed away last week.
The Rundown: Google has drawn its AI payment lines — and publishers’ leverage is narrow
For publishers trying to navigate AI licensing, the message was blunt: Google is willing to pay for access, but not for training – and it remains unwilling to define AI Overviews as a compensable use of journalism.
Media Briefing: Google’s latest core update a reminder that pageviews can’t remain the primary metric
Google’s latest core update signals pageviews can no longer be the primary metric, favoring intent-solving publishers over scale.