Worth Reading: The Pitfall in Platform Predictions

It seems like every day this past week the news has been filled with estimates of where the smartphone market will be in 2015 or 2016. So much has changed in the past four to five years in mobile that it’s hard to even look at past trends to figure out the future. Horace Dediu at Asymco feels the same:
[W]hen comparing what was happening in 2007 with the market three years later it’s clear that most of the change was from the entry of iOS and Android (and a large expansion in RIM as well.) So how are we to be sure that there won’t be another entrant between now and 2016? I presume the argument is that the market is “too big” for a newcomer to make an impact. This argument is equivalent to saying that some organizations are “too big to fail”. That might has a right of its own.
This knowledge can be applied to any form of technology, but with the changes we’ve seen in mobile recently, it’s most pertinent here. You can read the full post at Asymco.
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